Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin

Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-06-04 23:10
Deportes Tolima
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
27%
Confidence
High
Score
1-0
Independiente Medellin
Away

Prediction Summary

1
51%
X
31%
2
19%
Under 2.5
73%
BTTS No
68%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Deportes Tolima (Home)

Goals scored / match1.44
Goals conceded / match0.78
Over 2.5 rate19%
BTTS rate48%

Independiente Medellin (Away)

Goals scored / match1.33
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate19%
BTTS rate52%

Team Form last 5 matches

Deportes Tolima
LLWDW
Independiente Medellin
WLDLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

78% +0.5 70%
44% +1.5 33%
19% +2.5 19%
4% +3.5 7%
0% +4.5 4%
48% BTTS 52%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 27%. Model confidence is High.

Deportes Tolima averages 1.44 goals scored at home, while Independiente Medellin averages 1.33 goals scored away.

Model Strength
73%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
51%
Draw
31%
Away Win
19%
Over 2.5
27%
BTTS Yes
32%

Head-to-Head last 4

Sep 2025 Deportes Tolima 2 - 3 Independiente Medellin Away
Jun 2025 Deportes Tolima(A) 1 - 2 Independiente Medellin Away
Jun 2025 Deportes Tolima 1 - 3 Independiente Medellin Away
May 2025 Deportes Tolima(A) 1 - 0 Independiente Medellin Home

In the last 4 meetings, Deportes Tolima won 1, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Deportes Tolima — unbeaten run (home)0
Deportes Tolima — scoring streak (home)0
Independiente Medellin — winless run (away)3
Independiente Medellin — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Deportes Tolima Win (1)51%
Draw (X)31%
Independiente Medellin Win (2)19%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

78% +0.5 70%
44% +1.5 33%
19% +2.5 19%
4% +3.5 7%
0% +4.5 4%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

22% -0.5 30%
56% -1.5 67%
81% -2.5 81%
96% -3.5 93%
100% -4.5 96%

Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Deportes Tolima — scored (home)1.44
Deportes Tolima — conceded (home)0.78
Independiente Medellin — scored (away)1.33
Independiente Medellin — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals1.8

Both Teams To Score

Yes32%
No68%

Rate per Team

Deportes Tolima — BTTS matches (home)48%
Independiente Medellin — BTTS matches (away)52%
Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.589%
Under 4.511%
Over 5.580%
Under 5.520%
Over 6.571%
Under 6.529%
Over 7.554%
Under 7.546%
Over 8.532%
Under 8.568%
Over 9.521%
Under 9.579%
Over 10.519%
Under 10.581%
Expected total corners (blended average)7.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Deportes Tolima (home)

Corners for4.6
Corners against2.7

Independiente Medellin (away)

Corners for5.3
Corners against3.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Deportes Tolima
8 8 8 9 12
Independiente Medellin
12 7 4 3 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.591%
Under 2.59%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Deportes Tolima (home)

For2.9

Independiente Medellin (away)

For3.1

Shots per Game

Deportes Tolima — total shots (home)14.7
Independiente Medellin — total shots (away)14.1

Shots on Target

Deportes Tolima — on target (home)4.5
Independiente Medellin — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Deportes Tolima

Inside the box7.02
Outside the box5.72

Independiente Medellin

Inside the box7.78
Outside the box8.04

Player Shots Deportes Tolima

G. Lencina
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target29%
G. Ramírez
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Gonzalez
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target12%
J. P. Torres Patino
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target8%
A. Parra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Independiente Medellin

B. Leon
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target38%
F. Fydriszewski
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Berrío
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Barrera
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target5%
F. Chaverra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Deportes Tolima xG (home)1.26
Independiente Medellin xG (away)1.4

Average Possession

53.69% Possession 56.72%

Team Comparison Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin

81.54% Pass accuracy 80.91%
409.22 Passes per match 412.61
0 Goals prevented 0
10.46 Fouls committed 11.06
2.5 Goalkeeper saves 2.41
1.42 Offsides 1.26
11.89 Tackles per match 10.46

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin prediction analysis

Review Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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