Prediction Analysis: Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primera A
2025-10-05
20:00
Deportivo Pasto
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
43%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Alianza Valledupar
Away
Prediction Summary
1
50%
X
26%
2
24%
Under 2.5
57%
BTTS No
53%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Deportivo Pasto (Home)
Goals scored / match1.75
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate30%
BTTS rate50%
Alianza Valledupar (Away)
Goals scored / match0.9
Goals conceded / match1.45
Over 2.5 rate10%
BTTS rate40%
Team Form last 5 matches
Deportivo Pasto
WLWLD
Alianza Valledupar
LWWWL
Goals Comparison rate per team
85%
+0.5
55%
55%
+1.5
25%
30%
+2.5
10%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
50%
BTTS
40%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 43%. Model confidence is Medium.
Deportivo Pasto averages 1.75 goals scored at home, while Alianza Valledupar averages 0.9 goals scored away.
Model Strength
57%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
50%
Draw
26%
Away Win
24%
Over 2.5
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
Head-to-Head last 2
Oct 2025
Deportivo Pasto
3 - 3
Alianza Valledupar
Draw
Apr 2025
Deportivo Pasto(A)
0 - 1
Alianza Valledupar
Away
In the last 2 meetings, Deportivo Pasto won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Deportivo Pasto — unbeaten run (home)4
Deportivo Pasto — scoring streak (home)4
Alianza Valledupar — winless run (away)1
Alianza Valledupar — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Deportivo Pasto Win (1)50%
Draw (X)26%
Alianza Valledupar Win (2)24%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
85%
+0.5
55%
55%
+1.5
25%
30%
+2.5
10%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
15%
-0.5
45%
45%
-1.5
75%
70%
-2.5
90%
95%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Deportivo Pasto — scored (home)1.75
Deportivo Pasto — conceded (home)1.05
Alianza Valledupar — scored (away)0.9
Alianza Valledupar — conceded (away)1.45
Model expected combined goals2.41
Both Teams To Score
Yes47%
No53%
Rate per Team
Deportivo Pasto — BTTS matches (home)50%
Alianza Valledupar — BTTS matches (away)40%
Combined (simple average)45%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.583%
Under 4.517%
Over 5.580%
Under 5.520%
Over 6.570%
Under 6.530%
Over 7.553%
Under 7.547%
Over 8.545%
Under 8.555%
Over 9.538%
Under 9.562%
Over 10.530%
Under 10.570%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.40
Per-Team Corners own matches
Deportivo Pasto (home)
Corners for4.3
Corners against3.7
Alianza Valledupar (away)
Corners for3.3
Corners against5.5
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Deportivo Pasto
7
16
11
5
4
Alianza Valledupar
16
11
9
10
6
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.4
Yellow Cards per Team
Deportivo Pasto (home)
For3.8
Alianza Valledupar (away)
For2.4
Shots per Game
Deportivo Pasto — total shots (home)12.7
Alianza Valledupar — total shots (away)9.9
Shots on Target
Deportivo Pasto — on target (home)4.0
Alianza Valledupar — on target (away)3.3
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Deportivo Pasto
Inside the box5.88
Outside the box5.6
Alianza Valledupar
Inside the box6.4
Outside the box5.8
Player Shots Deportivo Pasto
Y. Valois
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target56%
F. Boné
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%
G. Torres
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target11%
D. Camacho
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
J. Rivas
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
Player Shots Alianza Valledupar
C. Lucumi
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target53%
F. Pardo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target15%
E. Torres
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target3%
J. Muñoz
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%
M. Martinez
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target9%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Pasto xG (home)0.98
Alianza Valledupar xG (away)1.2
Average Possession
43.55%
Possession
49.88%
Team Comparison Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar
78.88%
Pass accuracy
78.53%
317.15
Passes per match
349.75
0
Goals prevented
0
13.58
Fouls committed
12
2.55
Goalkeeper saves
2.55
1.58
Offsides
1.97
12.18
Tackles per match
12.03
League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar prediction analysis
Review Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights