Prediction Analysis: Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primera A
2025-10-18
19:00
Deportivo Pasto
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
47%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Atletico Nacional
Away
Prediction Summary
1
39%
X
27%
2
34%
Under 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
52%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Deportivo Pasto (Home)
Goals scored / match1.75
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate30%
BTTS rate50%
Atletico Nacional (Away)
Goals scored / match1.38
Goals conceded / match1.23
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate65%
Team Form last 5 matches
Deportivo Pasto
WLWLD
Atletico Nacional
LWLDD
Goals Comparison rate per team
85%
+0.5
73%
55%
+1.5
42%
30%
+2.5
15%
5%
+3.5
4%
0%
+4.5
4%
50%
BTTS
65%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 47%. Model confidence is Low.
Deportivo Pasto averages 1.75 goals scored at home, while Atletico Nacional averages 1.38 goals scored away.
Model Strength
53%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
39%
Draw
27%
Away Win
34%
Over 2.5
47%
BTTS Yes
52%
Head-to-Head last 2
Oct 2025
Deportivo Pasto
2 - 2
Atletico Nacional
Draw
Apr 2025
Deportivo Pasto(A)
0 - 3
Atletico Nacional
Away
In the last 2 meetings, Deportivo Pasto won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Deportivo Pasto — unbeaten run (home)4
Deportivo Pasto — scoring streak (home)4
Atletico Nacional — winless run (away)4
Atletico Nacional — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Deportivo Pasto Win (1)39%
Draw (X)27%
Atletico Nacional Win (2)34%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
85%
+0.5
73%
55%
+1.5
42%
30%
+2.5
15%
5%
+3.5
4%
0%
+4.5
4%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
15%
-0.5
27%
45%
-1.5
58%
70%
-2.5
85%
95%
-3.5
96%
100%
-4.5
96%
Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Deportivo Pasto — scored (home)1.75
Deportivo Pasto — conceded (home)1.05
Atletico Nacional — scored (away)1.38
Atletico Nacional — conceded (away)1.23
Model expected combined goals2.57
Both Teams To Score
Yes52%
No48%
Rate per Team
Deportivo Pasto — BTTS matches (home)50%
Atletico Nacional — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)57.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.588%
Under 4.512%
Over 5.586%
Under 5.514%
Over 6.574%
Under 6.526%
Over 7.562%
Under 7.538%
Over 8.555%
Under 8.545%
Over 9.535%
Under 9.565%
Over 10.531%
Under 10.569%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Deportivo Pasto (home)
Corners for4.3
Corners against3.7
Atletico Nacional (away)
Corners for5.3
Corners against4.0
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Deportivo Pasto
7
16
11
5
4
Atletico Nacional
12
8
9
3
9
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.596%
Under 1.54%
Over 2.591%
Under 2.59%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.1
Yellow Cards per Team
Deportivo Pasto (home)
For3.8
Atletico Nacional (away)
For2.8
Shots per Game
Deportivo Pasto — total shots (home)12.7
Atletico Nacional — total shots (away)13.8
Shots on Target
Deportivo Pasto — on target (home)4.0
Atletico Nacional — on target (away)4.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Deportivo Pasto
Inside the box5.88
Outside the box5.6
Atletico Nacional
Inside the box8.73
Outside the box7.02
Player Shots Deportivo Pasto
Y. Valois
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target56%
F. Boné
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%
G. Torres
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target11%
D. Camacho
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
J. Rivas
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
Player Shots Atletico Nacional
A. Morelos
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target27%
K. Viveros
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%
E. Cardona
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target15%
J. Rengifo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target15%
A. Sarmiento
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target13%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Pasto xG (home)0.98
Atletico Nacional xG (away)1.17
Average Possession
43.55%
Possession
56.51%
Team Comparison Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional
78.88%
Pass accuracy
83.69%
317.15
Passes per match
411.63
0
Goals prevented
0
13.58
Fouls committed
11.51
2.55
Goalkeeper saves
2.59
1.58
Offsides
1.7
12.18
Tackles per match
10.58
League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional prediction analysis
Review Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights