Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Deportivo Pasto vs Chico

Deportivo Pasto vs Chico prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-09-05 23:00
Deportivo Pasto
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
45%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Chico
Away

Prediction Summary

1
59%
X
24%
2
17%
Under 2.5
55%
BTTS No
56%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Deportivo Pasto (Home)

Goals scored / match1.75
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate30%
BTTS rate50%

Chico (Away)

Goals scored / match0.6
Goals conceded / match2
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate35%

Team Form last 5 matches

Deportivo Pasto
WLWLD
Chico
LLLWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

85% +0.5 45%
55% +1.5 15%
30% +2.5 0%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
50% BTTS 35%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 45%. Model confidence is Medium.

Deportivo Pasto averages 1.75 goals scored at home, while Chico averages 0.6 goals scored away.

Model Strength
59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
59%
Draw
24%
Away Win
17%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Yes
44%

Head-to-Head last 4

Sep 2025 Deportivo Pasto 2 - 0 Chico Home
Jul 2025 Deportivo Pasto(A) 2 - 2 Chico Draw
Mar 2025 Deportivo Pasto(A) 0 - 0 Chico Draw
Feb 2025 Deportivo Pasto 3 - 0 Chico Home

In the last 4 meetings, Deportivo Pasto won 2, drew 2 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Deportivo Pasto — unbeaten run (home)4
Deportivo Pasto — scoring streak (home)4
Chico — winless run (away)1
Chico — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Deportivo Pasto Win (1)59%
Draw (X)24%
Chico Win (2)17%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

85% +0.5 45%
55% +1.5 15%
30% +2.5 0%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

15% -0.5 55%
45% -1.5 85%
70% -2.5 100%
95% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Deportivo Pasto vs Chico — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Deportivo Pasto — scored (home)1.75
Deportivo Pasto — conceded (home)1.05
Chico — scored (away)0.6
Chico — conceded (away)2
Model expected combined goals2.48

Both Teams To Score

Yes44%
No56%

Rate per Team

Deportivo Pasto — BTTS matches (home)50%
Chico — BTTS matches (away)35%
Combined (simple average)42.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.588%
Under 4.512%
Over 5.583%
Under 5.517%
Over 6.568%
Under 6.532%
Over 7.550%
Under 7.550%
Over 8.543%
Under 8.557%
Over 9.535%
Under 9.565%
Over 10.523%
Under 10.577%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Deportivo Pasto (home)

Corners for4.3
Corners against3.7

Chico (away)

Corners for2.3
Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Deportivo Pasto
7 16 11 5 4
Chico
5 4 7 10 2

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Deportivo Pasto (home)

For3.8

Chico (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

Deportivo Pasto — total shots (home)12.7
Chico — total shots (away)8.5

Shots on Target

Deportivo Pasto — on target (home)4.0
Chico — on target (away)2.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Deportivo Pasto

Inside the box5.88
Outside the box5.6

Chico

Inside the box4.88
Outside the box5.28

Player Shots Deportivo Pasto

Y. Valois
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target56%
F. Boné
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%
G. Torres
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target11%
D. Camacho
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
J. Rivas
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Chico

Hassan Vergara
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
J. Molina
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target27%
E. Banguero
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target15%
E. Arango
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target4%
J. Bocanegra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Deportivo Pasto xG (home)0.98
Chico xG (away)1.02

Average Possession

43.55% Possession 47.6%

Team Comparison Deportivo Pasto vs Chico

78.88% Pass accuracy 77.73%
317.15 Passes per match 328.68
0 Goals prevented 0
13.58 Fouls committed 11.03
2.55 Goalkeeper saves 3.05
1.58 Offsides 1.68
12.18 Tackles per match 10.13

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Deportivo Pasto vs Chico prediction analysis

Review Deportivo Pasto vs Chico with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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