Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Deportivo Pasto vs Envigado

Deportivo Pasto vs Envigado prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-08-15 01:10
Deportivo Pasto
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
44%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Envigado
Away

Prediction Summary

1
50%
X
26%
2
24%
Under 2.5
56%
BTTS No
52%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Deportivo Pasto (Home)

Goals scored / match1.75
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate30%
BTTS rate50%

Envigado (Away)

Goals scored / match0.95
Goals conceded / match1.15
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate35%

Team Form last 5 matches

Deportivo Pasto
WLWLD
Envigado
WDLLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

85% +0.5 45%
55% +1.5 30%
30% +2.5 15%
5% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%
50% BTTS 35%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.

Deportivo Pasto averages 1.75 goals scored at home, while Envigado averages 0.95 goals scored away.

Model Strength
56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
50%
Draw
26%
Away Win
24%
Over 2.5
44%
BTTS Yes
48%

Head-to-Head last 2

Aug 2025 Deportivo Pasto 0 - 1 Envigado Away
Feb 2025 Deportivo Pasto(A) 1 - 0 Envigado Home

In the last 2 meetings, Deportivo Pasto won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Deportivo Pasto — unbeaten run (home)4
Deportivo Pasto — scoring streak (home)4
Envigado — winless run (away)0
Envigado — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Deportivo Pasto Win (1)50%
Draw (X)26%
Envigado Win (2)24%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

85% +0.5 45%
55% +1.5 30%
30% +2.5 15%
5% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

15% -0.5 55%
45% -1.5 70%
70% -2.5 85%
95% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 100%

Deportivo Pasto vs Envigado — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Deportivo Pasto — scored (home)1.75
Deportivo Pasto — conceded (home)1.05
Envigado — scored (away)0.95
Envigado — conceded (away)1.15
Model expected combined goals2.46

Both Teams To Score

Yes48%
No52%

Rate per Team

Deportivo Pasto — BTTS matches (home)50%
Envigado — BTTS matches (away)35%
Combined (simple average)42.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.585%
Under 4.515%
Over 5.583%
Under 5.517%
Over 6.573%
Under 6.527%
Over 7.558%
Under 7.542%
Over 8.548%
Under 8.552%
Over 9.538%
Under 9.562%
Over 10.535%
Under 10.565%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Deportivo Pasto (home)

Corners for4.3
Corners against3.7

Envigado (away)

Corners for2.8
Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Deportivo Pasto
7 16 11 5 4
Envigado
3 4 12 6 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.593%
Under 2.57%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Deportivo Pasto (home)

For3.8

Envigado (away)

For4.2

Shots per Game

Deportivo Pasto — total shots (home)12.7
Envigado — total shots (away)10.2

Shots on Target

Deportivo Pasto — on target (home)4.0
Envigado — on target (away)2.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Deportivo Pasto

Inside the box5.88
Outside the box5.6

Envigado

Inside the box5.23
Outside the box5.13

Player Shots Deportivo Pasto

Y. Valois
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target56%
F. Boné
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%
G. Torres
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target11%
D. Camacho
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
J. Rivas
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Envigado

D. Pabón
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target50%
D. Arcila
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target19%
E. López
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target8%
B. Garcés
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target8%
W. Hurtado
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target5%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Deportivo Pasto xG (home)0.98
Envigado xG (away)1.15

Average Possession

43.55% Possession 43.18%

Team Comparison Deportivo Pasto vs Envigado

78.88% Pass accuracy 74.7%
317.15 Passes per match 285.13
0 Goals prevented 0
13.58 Fouls committed 14.18
2.55 Goalkeeper saves 2.9
1.58 Offsides 1.74
12.18 Tackles per match 11.08

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Deportivo Pasto vs Envigado prediction analysis

Review Deportivo Pasto vs Envigado with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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