Prediction Analysis: Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin
Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primera A
2025-08-19
00:30
Deportivo Pasto
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
33%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Independiente Medellin
Away
Prediction Summary
1
42%
X
30%
2
28%
Under 2.5
67%
BTTS No
60%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Deportivo Pasto (Home)
Goals scored / match1.75
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate30%
BTTS rate50%
Independiente Medellin (Away)
Goals scored / match1.33
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate19%
BTTS rate52%
Team Form last 5 matches
Deportivo Pasto
WLWLD
Independiente Medellin
WLDLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
85%
+0.5
70%
55%
+1.5
33%
30%
+2.5
19%
5%
+3.5
7%
0%
+4.5
4%
50%
BTTS
52%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 33%. Model confidence is Medium.
Deportivo Pasto averages 1.75 goals scored at home, while Independiente Medellin averages 1.33 goals scored away.
Model Strength
67%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
42%
Draw
30%
Away Win
28%
Over 2.5
33%
BTTS Yes
40%
Head-to-Head last 2
Aug 2025
Deportivo Pasto
1 - 2
Independiente Medellin
Away
Mar 2025
Deportivo Pasto(A)
0 - 1
Independiente Medellin
Away
In the last 2 meetings, Deportivo Pasto won 0, drew 0 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Deportivo Pasto — unbeaten run (home)4
Deportivo Pasto — scoring streak (home)4
Independiente Medellin — winless run (away)3
Independiente Medellin — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Deportivo Pasto Win (1)42%
Draw (X)30%
Independiente Medellin Win (2)28%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
85%
+0.5
70%
55%
+1.5
33%
30%
+2.5
19%
5%
+3.5
7%
0%
+4.5
4%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
15%
-0.5
30%
45%
-1.5
67%
70%
-2.5
81%
95%
-3.5
93%
100%
-4.5
96%
Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Deportivo Pasto — scored (home)1.75
Deportivo Pasto — conceded (home)1.05
Independiente Medellin — scored (away)1.33
Independiente Medellin — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals2.02
Both Teams To Score
Yes40%
No60%
Rate per Team
Deportivo Pasto — BTTS matches (home)50%
Independiente Medellin — BTTS matches (away)52%
Combined (simple average)51%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.585%
Under 4.515%
Over 5.577%
Under 5.523%
Over 6.572%
Under 6.528%
Over 7.555%
Under 7.545%
Over 8.541%
Under 8.559%
Over 9.533%
Under 9.567%
Over 10.528%
Under 10.572%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Deportivo Pasto (home)
Corners for4.3
Corners against3.7
Independiente Medellin (away)
Corners for5.3
Corners against3.0
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Deportivo Pasto
7
16
11
5
4
Independiente Medellin
12
7
4
3
7
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.1
Yellow Cards per Team
Deportivo Pasto (home)
For3.8
Independiente Medellin (away)
For3.1
Shots per Game
Deportivo Pasto — total shots (home)12.7
Independiente Medellin — total shots (away)14.1
Shots on Target
Deportivo Pasto — on target (home)4.0
Independiente Medellin — on target (away)4.7
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Deportivo Pasto
Inside the box5.88
Outside the box5.6
Independiente Medellin
Inside the box7.78
Outside the box8.04
Player Shots Deportivo Pasto
Y. Valois
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target56%
F. Boné
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%
G. Torres
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target11%
D. Camacho
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
J. Rivas
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
Player Shots Independiente Medellin
B. Leon
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target38%
F. Fydriszewski
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Berrío
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Barrera
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target5%
F. Chaverra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Pasto xG (home)0.98
Independiente Medellin xG (away)1.4
Average Possession
43.55%
Possession
56.72%
Team Comparison Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin
78.88%
Pass accuracy
80.91%
317.15
Passes per match
412.61
0
Goals prevented
0
13.58
Fouls committed
11.06
2.55
Goalkeeper saves
2.41
1.58
Offsides
1.26
12.18
Tackles per match
10.46
League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin prediction analysis
Review Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights