Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin

Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-11-07 23:10
Deportivo Pereira
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
41%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Independiente Medellin
Away

Prediction Summary

1
39%
X
28%
2
33%
Under 2.5
59%
BTTS No
53%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Deportivo Pereira (Home)

Goals scored / match1.4
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate10%
BTTS rate50%

Independiente Medellin (Away)

Goals scored / match1.33
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate19%
BTTS rate52%

Team Form last 5 matches

Deportivo Pereira
LLLLL
Independiente Medellin
WLDLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

80% +0.5 70%
50% +1.5 33%
10% +2.5 19%
0% +3.5 7%
0% +4.5 4%
50% BTTS 52%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 41%. Model confidence is Medium.

Deportivo Pereira averages 1.4 goals scored at home, while Independiente Medellin averages 1.33 goals scored away.

Model Strength
59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
39%
Draw
28%
Away Win
33%
Over 2.5
41%
BTTS Yes
47%

Head-to-Head last 2

Nov 2025 Deportivo Pereira 1 - 4 Independiente Medellin Away
May 2025 Deportivo Pereira(A) 0 - 2 Independiente Medellin Away

In the last 2 meetings, Deportivo Pereira won 0, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Deportivo Pereira — unbeaten run (home)0
Deportivo Pereira — scoring streak (home)4
Independiente Medellin — winless run (away)3
Independiente Medellin — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Deportivo Pereira Win (1)39%
Draw (X)28%
Independiente Medellin Win (2)33%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

80% +0.5 70%
50% +1.5 33%
10% +2.5 19%
0% +3.5 7%
0% +4.5 4%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

20% -0.5 30%
50% -1.5 67%
90% -2.5 81%
100% -3.5 93%
100% -4.5 96%

Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Deportivo Pereira — scored (home)1.4
Deportivo Pereira — conceded (home)1.05
Independiente Medellin — scored (away)1.33
Independiente Medellin — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals2.33

Both Teams To Score

Yes47%
No53%

Rate per Team

Deportivo Pereira — BTTS matches (home)50%
Independiente Medellin — BTTS matches (away)52%
Combined (simple average)51%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.584%
Under 5.516%
Over 6.575%
Under 6.525%
Over 7.560%
Under 7.540%
Over 8.544%
Under 8.556%
Over 9.535%
Under 9.565%
Over 10.528%
Under 10.572%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Deportivo Pereira (home)

Corners for4.7
Corners against4.2

Independiente Medellin (away)

Corners for5.3
Corners against3.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Deportivo Pereira
10 7 11 8 4
Independiente Medellin
12 7 4 3 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.594%
Under 0.56%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.592%
Under 2.58%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Deportivo Pereira (home)

For3.4

Independiente Medellin (away)

For3.1

Shots per Game

Deportivo Pereira — total shots (home)12.4
Independiente Medellin — total shots (away)14.1

Shots on Target

Deportivo Pereira — on target (home)4.2
Independiente Medellin — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Deportivo Pereira

Inside the box6.05
Outside the box5.35

Independiente Medellin

Inside the box7.78
Outside the box8.04

Player Shots Deportivo Pereira

D. Quintero
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Quiñones
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target15%
S. Merheg
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target8%
A. Estacio
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
G. Torres
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target17%

Player Shots Independiente Medellin

B. Leon
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target38%
F. Fydriszewski
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Berrío
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Barrera
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target5%
F. Chaverra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Deportivo Pereira xG (home)1.06
Independiente Medellin xG (away)1.4

Average Possession

45.4% Possession 56.72%

Team Comparison Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin

75.78% Pass accuracy 80.91%
315.05 Passes per match 412.61
0 Goals prevented 0
13.2 Fouls committed 11.06
3.45 Goalkeeper saves 2.41
2.03 Offsides 1.26
11.3 Tackles per match 10.46

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin prediction analysis

Review Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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