What markets are included in the Derby vs Bristol City prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Derby vs Bristol City prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Derby vs Bristol City

Derby vs Bristol City prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-08-22 19:00

Derby

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

44%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Bristol City

Away

Prediction Summary

39%

27%

33%

Under 2.5

56%

BTTS No

51%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Derby (Home)

Goals scored / match1.35

Goals conceded / match1.17

Over 2.5 rate9%

BTTS rate65%

Bristol City (Away)

Goals scored / match1.13

Goals conceded / match1.22

Over 2.5 rate13%

BTTS rate52%

Team Form last 5 matches

Derby

LWLWL

Bristol City

WLDLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

96% +0.5 65%

30% +1.5 30%

9% +2.5 13%

0% +3.5 4%

0% +4.5 0%

65% BTTS 52%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.

Derby averages 1.35 goals scored at home, while Bristol City averages 1.13 goals scored away.

Model Strength

56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

39%

Draw

27%

Away Win

33%

Over 2.5

44%

BTTS Yes

49%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Derby(A) 5 - 0 Bristol City Home

Aug 2025 Derby 1 - 1 Bristol City Draw

Jan 2025 Derby(A) 0 - 1 Bristol City Away

Aug 2024 Derby 3 - 0 Bristol City Home

Apr 2022 Derby 1 - 3 Bristol City Away

In the last 5 meetings, Derby won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Derby — unbeaten run (home)0

Derby — scoring streak (home)20

Bristol City — winless run (away)3

Bristol City — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Derby Win (1)39%

Draw (X)27%

Bristol City Win (2)33%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

96% +0.5 65%

30% +1.5 30%

9% +2.5 13%

0% +3.5 4%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

4% -0.5 35%

70% -1.5 70%

91% -2.5 87%

100% -3.5 96%

100% -4.5 100%

Derby vs Bristol City — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Derby — scored (home)1.35

Derby — conceded (home)1.17

Bristol City — scored (away)1.13

Bristol City — conceded (away)1.22

Model expected combined goals2.44

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%

No51%

Rate per Team

Derby — BTTS matches (home)65%

Bristol City — BTTS matches (away)52%

Combined (simple average)58.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.596%

Under 5.54%

Over 6.592%

Under 6.58%

Over 7.583%

Under 7.517%

Over 8.565%

Under 8.535%

Over 9.555%

Under 9.545%

Over 10.535%

Under 10.565%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Derby (home)

Corners for5.5

Corners against4.3

Bristol City (away)

Corners for5.0

Corners against5.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Derby

8 10 7 16 10

Bristol City

9 12 10 11 17

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.596%

Under 1.54%

Over 2.585%

Under 2.515%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Derby (home)

For2.2

Bristol City (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

Derby — total shots (home)11.9

Bristol City — total shots (away)11.6

Shots on Target

Derby — on target (home)3.7

Bristol City — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Derby

Inside the box7.63

Outside the box3.35

Bristol City

Inside the box7.39

Outside the box4.78

Player Shots Derby

P. Agyemang

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target68%

+1.5 On Target14%

S. Szmodics

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target8%

C. Morris

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target10%

B. Brereton

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target13%

J. Banel

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Bristol City

A. Mehmeti

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target61%

+1.5 On Target32%

S. Twine

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target47%

+1.5 On Target18%

E. Riis

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target14%

S. Bell

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target8%

T. Horvat

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target7%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Derby xG (home)1.23

Bristol City xG (away)1.21

Average Possession

44.48% Possession 49.28%

Team Comparison Derby vs Bristol City

73.22% Pass accuracy 77.85%

336.26 Passes per match 424.78

0.02 Goals prevented -0.04

12.22 Fouls committed 9.54

3.15 Goalkeeper saves 3.23

1.6 Offsides 2.02

14.65 Tackles per match 14.8

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Derby vs Bristol City prediction analysis

Review Derby vs Bristol City with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights