What markets are included in the Derby vs Cardiff prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Derby vs Cardiff prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Derby vs Cardiff

Derby vs Cardiff prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2026-08-22 14:00

Derby

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

49%

Confidence

Low

Score

1-1

Cardiff

Away

Prediction Summary

44%

26%

30%

Under 2.5

51%

BTTS Yes

53%

Confidence

Low

Market Evidence

Derby (Home)

Goals scored / match1.35

Goals conceded / match1.17

Over 2.5 rate9%

BTTS rate65%

Cardiff (Away)

Goals scored / match0

Goals conceded / match0

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate0%

Team Form last 5 matches

Derby

LWLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

96% +0.5 0%

30% +1.5 0%

9% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

65% BTTS 0%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Low.

Derby averages 1.35 goals scored at home, while Cardiff averages 0 goals scored away.

Model Strength

53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

44%

Draw

26%

Away Win

30%

Over 2.5

49%

BTTS Yes

53%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2025 Derby(A) 1 - 2 Cardiff Away

Sep 2024 Derby 1 - 0 Cardiff Home

May 2022 Derby 0 - 1 Cardiff Away

Mar 2022 Derby(A) 0 - 1 Cardiff Away

Mar 2021 Derby(A) 0 - 4 Cardiff Away

In the last 5 meetings, Derby won 1, drew 0 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

Derby — unbeaten run (home)0

Derby — scoring streak (home)20

1X2 Probability model

Derby Win (1)44%

Draw (X)26%

Cardiff Win (2)30%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

96% +0.5 0%

30% +1.5 0%

9% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

4% -0.5 100%

70% -1.5 100%

91% -2.5 100%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Derby vs Cardiff — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Derby — scored (home)1.35

Derby — conceded (home)1.17

Cardiff — scored (away)0

Cardiff — conceded (away)0

Model expected combined goals2.63

Both Teams To Score

Yes53%

No47%

Rate per Team

Derby — BTTS matches (home)65%

Cardiff — BTTS matches (away)0%

Combined (simple average)32.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.565%

Under 8.535%

Over 9.554%

Under 9.546%

Over 10.544%

Under 10.556%

Expected total corners (model prediction)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Derby (home)

Corners for5.5

Corners against4.3

Cardiff (away)

Corners forâ€”

Corners againstâ€”

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Derby

8 10 7 16 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.550%

Under 0.550%

Over 1.548%

Under 1.552%

Over 2.542%

Under 2.558%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Derby (home)

For2.2

Cardiff (away)

Forâ€”

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.568%

Under 19.532%

Over 22.553%

Under 22.547%

Over 25.538%

Under 25.562%

Expected total shots23.77

Derby

Shots Over 9.575%

Shots Over 11.559%

Shots Over 13.543%

Expected shots13.12

On Target Over 3.557%

On Target Over 4.540%

On Target Over 5.525%

Expected on target4.14

Cardiff

Shots Over 9.557%

Shots Over 11.539%

Shots Over 13.524%

Expected shots10.65

On Target Over 3.544%

On Target Over 4.527%

On Target Over 5.515%

Expected on target3.42

Shots per Game

Derby — total shots (home)11.9

Cardiff — total shots (away)â€”

Shots on Target

Derby — on target (home)3.7

Cardiff — on target (away)â€”

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Derby

Inside the box7.63

Outside the box3.35

Cardiff

Inside the box-

Outside the box-

Player Shots Derby

P. Agyemang

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target68%

+1.5 On Target14%

S. Szmodics

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target8%

C. Morris

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target10%

B. Brereton

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target13%

J. Banel

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Cardiff

Not enough dataNot enough player match statistics for this squad.

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Derby xG (home)1.23

Cardiff xG (away)-

Average Possession

44.48% Possession -%

Team Comparison Derby vs Cardiff

73.22% Pass accuracy 0%

336.26 Passes per match -

0.02 Goals prevented -

12.22 Fouls committed -

3.15 Goalkeeper saves -

1.6 Offsides -

14.65 Tackles per match -

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Derby vs Cardiff prediction analysis

Review Derby vs Cardiff with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights