What markets are included in the Derby vs Middlesbrough prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Derby vs Middlesbrough prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Derby vs Middlesbrough

Derby vs Middlesbrough prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2026-01-01 15:00

Derby

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

50%

Confidence

Low

Score

1-1

Middlesbrough

Away

Prediction Summary

31%

26%

43%

O/U 2.5 · No edge

50%

BTTS Yes

54%

Confidence

Low

Market Evidence

Derby (Home)

Goals scored / match1.35

Goals conceded / match1.17

Over 2.5 rate9%

BTTS rate65%

Middlesbrough (Away)

Goals scored / match1.56

Goals conceded / match1.28

Over 2.5 rate20%

BTTS rate64%

Team Form last 5 matches

Derby

LWLWL

Middlesbrough

LLDDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

96% +0.5 76%

30% +1.5 52%

9% +2.5 20%

0% +3.5 8%

0% +4.5 0%

65% BTTS 64%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.

Derby averages 1.35 goals scored at home, while Middlesbrough averages 1.56 goals scored away.

Model Strength

54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

31%

Draw

26%

Away Win

43%

Over 2.5

50%

BTTS Yes

54%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Derby 1 - 0 Middlesbrough Home

Nov 2025 Derby(A) 1 - 2 Middlesbrough Away

Mar 2025 Derby(A) 0 - 1 Middlesbrough Away

Aug 2024 Derby 1 - 0 Middlesbrough Home

Feb 2022 Derby(A) 1 - 4 Middlesbrough Away

In the last 5 meetings, Derby won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Derby — unbeaten run (home)0

Derby — scoring streak (home)20

Middlesbrough — winless run (away)6

Middlesbrough — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Derby Win (1)31%

Draw (X)26%

Middlesbrough Win (2)43%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

96% +0.5 76%

30% +1.5 52%

9% +2.5 20%

0% +3.5 8%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

4% -0.5 24%

70% -1.5 48%

91% -2.5 80%

100% -3.5 92%

100% -4.5 100%

Derby vs Middlesbrough — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Derby — scored (home)1.35

Derby — conceded (home)1.17

Middlesbrough — scored (away)1.56

Middlesbrough — conceded (away)1.28

Model expected combined goals2.67

Both Teams To Score

Yes54%

No46%

Rate per Team

Derby — BTTS matches (home)65%

Middlesbrough — BTTS matches (away)64%

Combined (simple average)64.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%

Under 4.52%

Over 5.592%

Under 5.58%

Over 6.592%

Under 6.58%

Over 7.579%

Under 7.521%

Over 8.560%

Under 8.540%

Over 9.546%

Under 9.554%

Over 10.533%

Under 10.567%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Derby (home)

Corners for5.5

Corners against4.3

Middlesbrough (away)

Corners for5.8

Corners against4.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Derby

8 10 7 16 10

Middlesbrough

9 9 12 16 4

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.596%

Under 0.54%

Over 1.590%

Under 1.510%

Over 2.580%

Under 2.520%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Derby (home)

For2.2

Middlesbrough (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Derby — total shots (home)11.9

Middlesbrough — total shots (away)15.2

Shots on Target

Derby — on target (home)3.7

Middlesbrough — on target (away)4.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Derby

Inside the box7.63

Outside the box3.35

Middlesbrough

Inside the box10.41

Outside the box5.82

Player Shots Derby

P. Agyemang

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target68%

+1.5 On Target14%

S. Szmodics

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target8%

C. Morris

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target10%

B. Brereton

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target13%

J. Banel

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Middlesbrough

M. Whittaker

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target56%

+1.5 On Target21%

Leo Castledine

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target18%

T. Conway

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target17%

D. Strelec

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target49%

+1.5 On Target11%

H. Hackney

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Derby xG (home)1.23

Middlesbrough xG (away)1.5

Average Possession

44.48% Possession 59.43%

Team Comparison Derby vs Middlesbrough

73.22% Pass accuracy 84.08%

336.26 Passes per match 516.84

0.02 Goals prevented -0.17

12.22 Fouls committed 9.33

3.15 Goalkeeper saves 2.22

1.6 Offsides 1.89

14.65 Tackles per match 15.45

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Derby vs Middlesbrough prediction analysis

Review Derby vs Middlesbrough with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights