What markets are included in the Derby vs Millwall prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Derby vs Millwall prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Derby vs Millwall

Derby vs Millwall prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-12-10 19:45

Derby

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

53%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Millwall

Away

Prediction Summary

36%

25%

38%

Over 2.5

53%

BTTS Yes

56%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Derby (Home)

Goals scored / match1.35

Goals conceded / match1.17

Over 2.5 rate9%

BTTS rate65%

Millwall (Away)

Goals scored / match1.29

Goals conceded / match1

Over 2.5 rate8%

BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Derby

LWLWL

Millwall

LDWDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

96% +0.5 79%

30% +1.5 42%

9% +2.5 8%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

65% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 53%. Model confidence is Medium.

Derby averages 1.35 goals scored at home, while Millwall averages 1.29 goals scored away.

Model Strength

56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

36%

Draw

25%

Away Win

38%

Over 2.5

53%

BTTS Yes

56%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Derby(A) 0 - 1 Millwall Away

Dec 2025 Derby 1 - 1 Millwall Draw

Feb 2025 Derby 0 - 1 Millwall Away

Oct 2024 Derby(A) 1 - 1 Millwall Draw

Feb 2022 Derby 1 - 2 Millwall Away

In the last 5 meetings, Derby won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Derby — unbeaten run (home)0

Derby — scoring streak (home)20

Millwall — winless run (away)2

Millwall — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Derby Win (1)36%

Draw (X)25%

Millwall Win (2)38%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

96% +0.5 79%

30% +1.5 42%

9% +2.5 8%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

4% -0.5 21%

70% -1.5 58%

91% -2.5 92%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Derby vs Millwall — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Derby — scored (home)1.35

Derby — conceded (home)1.17

Millwall — scored (away)1.29

Millwall — conceded (away)1

Model expected combined goals2.78

Both Teams To Score

Yes56%

No44%

Rate per Team

Derby — BTTS matches (home)65%

Millwall — BTTS matches (away)58%

Combined (simple average)61.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.594%

Under 5.56%

Over 6.594%

Under 6.56%

Over 7.577%

Under 7.523%

Over 8.560%

Under 8.540%

Over 9.551%

Under 9.549%

Over 10.540%

Under 10.560%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Derby (home)

Corners for5.5

Corners against4.3

Millwall (away)

Corners for5.2

Corners against5.8

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Derby

8 10 7 16 10

Millwall

12 14 15 5 14

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.592%

Under 1.58%

Over 2.583%

Under 2.517%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Derby (home)

For2.2

Millwall (away)

For2.5

Shots per Game

Derby — total shots (home)11.9

Millwall — total shots (away)12.3

Shots on Target

Derby — on target (home)3.7

Millwall — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Derby

Inside the box7.63

Outside the box3.35

Millwall

Inside the box8.81

Outside the box4.13

Player Shots Derby

P. Agyemang

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target68%

+1.5 On Target14%

S. Szmodics

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target8%

C. Morris

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target10%

B. Brereton

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target13%

J. Banel

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Millwall

O. Azeez

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target22%

M. Ivanović

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target15%

J. Coburn

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target18%

T. Ballo

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target6%

A. Emakhu

Shots on Target/Game0.3

+0.5 On Target30%

+1.5 On Target4%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Derby xG (home)1.23

Millwall xG (away)1.36

Average Possession

44.48% Possession 47.63%

Team Comparison Derby vs Millwall

73.22% Pass accuracy 70.42%

336.26 Passes per match 348.19

0.02 Goals prevented 0.08

12.22 Fouls committed 12.52

3.15 Goalkeeper saves 2.73

1.6 Offsides 2.22

14.65 Tackles per match 15.75

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Derby vs Millwall prediction analysis

Review Derby vs Millwall with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights