What markets are included in the Derby vs Southampton prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Derby vs Southampton prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Derby vs Southampton

Derby vs Southampton prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-10-04 14:00

Derby

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

63%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Southampton

Away

Prediction Summary

33%

23%

44%

Over 2.5

63%

BTTS Yes

64%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Derby (Home)

Goals scored / match1.35

Goals conceded / match1.17

Over 2.5 rate9%

BTTS rate65%

Southampton (Away)

Goals scored / match1.83

Goals conceded / match1.54

Over 2.5 rate21%

BTTS rate88%

Team Form last 5 matches

Derby

LWLWL

Southampton

WDWDD

Goals Comparison rate per team

96% +0.5 92%

30% +1.5 50%

9% +2.5 21%

0% +3.5 13%

0% +4.5 8%

65% BTTS 88%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 63%. Model confidence is Medium.

Derby averages 1.35 goals scored at home, while Southampton averages 1.83 goals scored away.

Model Strength

64%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

33%

Draw

23%

Away Win

44%

Over 2.5

63%

BTTS Yes

64%

Head-to-Head last 2

Apr 2026 Derby(A) 1 - 2 Southampton Away

Oct 2025 Derby 1 - 1 Southampton Draw

In the last 2 meetings, Derby won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Derby — unbeaten run (home)0

Derby — scoring streak (home)20

Southampton — winless run (away)1

Southampton — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Derby Win (1)33%

Draw (X)23%

Southampton Win (2)44%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

96% +0.5 92%

30% +1.5 50%

9% +2.5 21%

0% +3.5 13%

0% +4.5 8%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

4% -0.5 8%

70% -1.5 50%

91% -2.5 79%

100% -3.5 87%

100% -4.5 92%

Derby vs Southampton — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Derby — scored (home)1.35

Derby — conceded (home)1.17

Southampton — scored (away)1.83

Southampton — conceded (away)1.54

Model expected combined goals3.25

Both Teams To Score

Yes64%

No36%

Rate per Team

Derby — BTTS matches (home)65%

Southampton — BTTS matches (away)88%

Combined (simple average)76.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.596%

Under 5.54%

Over 6.594%

Under 6.56%

Over 7.577%

Under 7.523%

Over 8.560%

Under 8.540%

Over 9.549%

Under 9.551%

Over 10.540%

Under 10.560%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Derby (home)

Corners for5.5

Corners against4.3

Southampton (away)

Corners for5.0

Corners against5.3

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Derby

8 10 7 16 10

Southampton

10 14 15 12 16

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.594%

Under 1.56%

Over 2.586%

Under 2.514%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Derby (home)

For2.2

Southampton (away)

For2.1

Shots per Game

Derby — total shots (home)11.9

Southampton — total shots (away)13.1

Shots on Target

Derby — on target (home)3.7

Southampton — on target (away)5.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Derby

Inside the box7.63

Outside the box3.35

Southampton

Inside the box9.77

Outside the box4.67

Player Shots Derby

P. Agyemang

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target68%

+1.5 On Target14%

S. Szmodics

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target8%

C. Morris

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target10%

B. Brereton

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target13%

J. Banel

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Southampton

A. Armstrong

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target66%

+1.5 On Target48%

Léo Scienza

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target26%

C. Larin

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target61%

+1.5 On Target17%

F. Azaz

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target49%

+1.5 On Target16%

R. Stewart

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target48%

+1.5 On Target4%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Derby xG (home)1.23

Southampton xG (away)1.67

Average Possession

44.48% Possession 56.31%

Team Comparison Derby vs Southampton

73.22% Pass accuracy 83.17%

336.26 Passes per match 479.94

0.02 Goals prevented -0.06

12.22 Fouls committed 11.02

3.15 Goalkeeper saves 2.52

1.6 Offsides 1.87

14.65 Tackles per match 15

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Derby vs Southampton prediction analysis

Review Derby vs Southampton with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights