What markets are included in the Derby vs Watford prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Derby vs Watford prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Derby vs Watford

Derby vs Watford prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-11-22 15:00

Derby

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

41%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Watford

Away

Prediction Summary

45%

28%

27%

Under 2.5

59%

BTTS No

54%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Derby (Home)

Goals scored / match1.35

Goals conceded / match1.17

Over 2.5 rate9%

BTTS rate65%

Watford (Away)

Goals scored / match1

Goals conceded / match1.65

Over 2.5 rate4%

BTTS rate65%

Team Form last 5 matches

Derby

LWLWL

Watford

LLLLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

96% +0.5 70%

30% +1.5 26%

9% +2.5 4%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

65% BTTS 65%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 41%. Model confidence is Medium.

Derby averages 1.35 goals scored at home, while Watford averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength

59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

45%

Draw

28%

Away Win

27%

Over 2.5

41%

BTTS Yes

46%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Derby(A) 0 - 2 Watford Away

Nov 2025 Derby 2 - 3 Watford Away

Jan 2025 Derby 0 - 2 Watford Away

Aug 2024 Derby(A) 1 - 2 Watford Away

Feb 2021 Derby(A) 1 - 2 Watford Away

In the last 5 meetings, Derby won 0, drew 0 and lost 5.

Current Streaks

Derby — unbeaten run (home)0

Derby — scoring streak (home)20

Watford — winless run (away)6

Watford — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Derby Win (1)45%

Draw (X)28%

Watford Win (2)27%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

96% +0.5 70%

30% +1.5 26%

9% +2.5 4%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

4% -0.5 30%

70% -1.5 74%

91% -2.5 96%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Derby vs Watford — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Derby — scored (home)1.35

Derby — conceded (home)1.17

Watford — scored (away)1

Watford — conceded (away)1.65

Model expected combined goals2.32

Both Teams To Score

Yes46%

No54%

Rate per Team

Derby — BTTS matches (home)65%

Watford — BTTS matches (away)65%

Combined (simple average)65%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.594%

Under 5.56%

Over 6.590%

Under 6.510%

Over 7.576%

Under 7.524%

Over 8.561%

Under 8.539%

Over 9.555%

Under 9.545%

Over 10.541%

Under 10.559%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Derby (home)

Corners for5.5

Corners against4.3

Watford (away)

Corners for4.4

Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Derby

8 10 7 16 10

Watford

15 13 7 9 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.592%

Under 1.58%

Over 2.581%

Under 2.519%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Derby (home)

For2.2

Watford (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Derby — total shots (home)11.9

Watford — total shots (away)12.0

Shots on Target

Derby — on target (home)3.7

Watford — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Derby

Inside the box7.63

Outside the box3.35

Watford

Inside the box8

Outside the box5.87

Player Shots Derby

P. Agyemang

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target68%

+1.5 On Target14%

S. Szmodics

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target8%

C. Morris

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target10%

B. Brereton

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target13%

J. Banel

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Watford

L. Kjerrumgaard

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target19%

O. Maamma

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target12%

R. Vata

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target25%

N. Irankunda

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target13%

Vivaldo Semedo

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target42%

+1.5 On Target12%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Derby xG (home)1.23

Watford xG (away)1.22

Average Possession

44.48% Possession 51.24%

Team Comparison Derby vs Watford

73.22% Pass accuracy 79.85%

336.26 Passes per match 414.59

0.02 Goals prevented -0.06

12.22 Fouls committed 11.07

3.15 Goalkeeper saves 2.72

1.6 Offsides 1.36

14.65 Tackles per match 15.11

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Derby vs Watford prediction analysis

Review Derby vs Watford with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights