Prediction Analysis: Derry City vs Waterford
Derry City vs Waterford prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Premier Division
2026-07-03
18:45
Derry City
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
85%
Confidence
High
Score
1-2
Waterford
Away
Prediction Summary
1
28%
X
18%
2
54%
Over 2.5
85%
BTTS Yes
81%
Confidence
High
Market Evidence
Derry City (Home)
Goals scored / match1.75
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate60%
Waterford (Away)
Goals scored / match2.33
Goals conceded / match1.33
Over 2.5 rate67%
BTTS rate67%
Team Form last 5 matches
Derry City
LWLWW
Waterford
DDWWL
Goals Comparison rate per team
95%
+0.5
67%
45%
+1.5
67%
15%
+2.5
67%
5%
+3.5
33%
5%
+4.5
0%
60%
BTTS
67%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 85%. Model confidence is High.
Derry City averages 1.75 goals scored at home, while Waterford averages 2.33 goals scored away.
Model Strength
85%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
28%
Draw
18%
Away Win
54%
Over 2.5
85%
BTTS Yes
81%
Head-to-Head last 5
Jul 2026
Derry City
2 - 4
Waterford
Away
Oct 2025
Derry City(A)
2 - 1
Waterford
Home
Jul 2025
Derry City
7 - 2
Waterford
Home
Apr 2025
Derry City(A)
1 - 2
Waterford
Away
Feb 2025
Derry City
1 - 2
Waterford
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Derry City won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Derry City — unbeaten run (home)0
Derry City — scoring streak (home)6
Waterford — winless run (away)1
Waterford — clean sheets (away, last 3)1 of 3
1X2 Probability model
Derry City Win (1)28%
Draw (X)18%
Waterford Win (2)54%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
95%
+0.5
67%
45%
+1.5
67%
15%
+2.5
67%
5%
+3.5
33%
5%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
5%
-0.5
33%
55%
-1.5
33%
85%
-2.5
33%
95%
-3.5
67%
95%
-4.5
100%
Derry City vs Waterford — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Derry City — scored (home)1.75
Derry City — conceded (home)1.05
Waterford — scored (away)2.33
Waterford — conceded (away)1.33
Model expected combined goals4.75
Both Teams To Score
Yes81%
No19%
Rate per Team
Derry City — BTTS matches (home)60%
Waterford — BTTS matches (away)67%
Combined (simple average)63.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.550%
Under 4.550%
Over 5.550%
Under 5.550%
Over 6.550%
Under 6.550%
Over 7.550%
Under 7.550%
Over 8.550%
Under 8.550%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.50%
Under 10.5100%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.00
Per-Team Corners own matches
Derry City (home)
Corners for—
Corners against—
Waterford (away)
Corners for5.0
Corners against5.0
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Waterford
10
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.550%
Under 0.550%
Over 1.550%
Under 1.550%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6
Yellow Cards per Team
Derry City (home)
For—
Waterford (away)
For3.0
Shots per Game
Derry City — total shots (home)—
Waterford — total shots (away)11.0
Shots on Target
Derry City — on target (home)—
Waterford — on target (away)2.0
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Derry City
Inside the box-
Outside the box-
Waterford
Inside the box5
Outside the box6
Player shot data not available yetNot enough player match statistics for these squads.
Expected Goals (xG)
Derry City xG (home)-
Waterford xG (away)0.59
Average Possession
-%
Possession
47%
Team Comparison Derry City vs Waterford
0%
Pass accuracy
56%
-
Passes per match
278
-
Goals prevented
0.23
-
Fouls committed
14
-
Goalkeeper saves
2
-
Offsides
1
League average xG this season is 1.12 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Derry City vs Waterford prediction analysis
Review Derry City vs Waterford with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier Division.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Premier Division
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights