Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax

Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Eerste Divisie 2026-08-07 18:00
Dordrecht
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
58%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Jong Ajax
Away

Prediction Summary

1
49%
X
24%
2
28%
Over 2.5
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Dordrecht (Home)

Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match1.32
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate58%

Jong Ajax (Away)

Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match2.16
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Dordrecht
LLWDL
Jong Ajax
LWLLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

84% +0.5 79%
26% +1.5 26%
16% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
58% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 58%. Model confidence is Medium.

Dordrecht averages 1.26 goals scored at home, while Jong Ajax averages 1.16 goals scored away.

Model Strength
58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
49%
Draw
24%
Away Win
28%
Over 2.5
56%
BTTS Yes
58%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Dordrecht 0 - 1 Jong Ajax Away
Nov 2025 Dordrecht(A) 0 - 0 Jong Ajax Draw
Apr 2025 Dordrecht 3 - 0 Jong Ajax Home
Sep 2024 Dordrecht(A) 1 - 0 Jong Ajax Home
Jan 2024 Dordrecht(A) 2 - 2 Jong Ajax Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Dordrecht won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Dordrecht — unbeaten run (home)0
Dordrecht — scoring streak (home)2
Jong Ajax — winless run (away)0
Jong Ajax — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Dordrecht Win (1)49%
Draw (X)24%
Jong Ajax Win (2)28%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

84% +0.5 79%
26% +1.5 26%
16% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

16% -0.5 21%
74% -1.5 74%
84% -2.5 89%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Dordrecht — scored (home)1.26
Dordrecht — conceded (home)1.32
Jong Ajax — scored (away)1.16
Jong Ajax — conceded (away)2.16
Model expected combined goals2.95

Both Teams To Score

Yes58%
No42%

Rate per Team

Dordrecht — BTTS matches (home)58%
Jong Ajax — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)60.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.567%
Under 8.533%
Over 9.557%
Under 9.543%
Over 10.546%
Under 10.554%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Dordrecht (home)

Corners for6.9
Corners against5.1

Jong Ajax (away)

Corners for3.5
Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Dordrecht
12 10 13 8 11
Jong Ajax
13 7 16 8 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Dordrecht (home)

For2.0

Jong Ajax (away)

For1.6

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.581%
Under 19.519%
Over 22.569%
Under 22.531%
Over 25.555%
Under 25.545%
Expected total shots27.41

Dordrecht

Shots Over 9.587%
Shots Over 11.576%
Shots Over 13.562%
Expected shots15.67
On Target Over 3.578%
On Target Over 4.564%
On Target Over 5.549%
Expected on target5.71

Jong Ajax

Shots Over 9.566%
Shots Over 11.548%
Shots Over 13.532%
Expected shots11.74
On Target Over 3.560%
On Target Over 4.542%
On Target Over 5.528%
Expected on target4.30

Shots per Game

Dordrecht — total shots (home)15.8
Jong Ajax — total shots (away)11.1

Shots on Target

Dordrecht — on target (home)4.9
Jong Ajax — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Dordrecht

Inside the box9.95
Outside the box4.92

Jong Ajax

Inside the box7.18
Outside the box4.68

Player Shots Dordrecht

Y. Eduardo
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target32%
J. van der Sluijs
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target24%
Yoon Do-Yong
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
N. Venema
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target14%
M. Afaker
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots Jong Ajax

Rayane Bounida
Shots on Target/Game2.2
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target30%
A. Kaplan
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
Sean Steur
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%
Kayden Wolff
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target20%
S. Vink
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Dordrecht xG (home)1.6
Jong Ajax xG (away)1.13

Average Possession

48.21% Possession 51.71%

Team Comparison Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax

75.85% Pass accuracy 82.39%
369.55 Passes per match 440.76
0 Goals prevented 0
13.18 Fouls committed 11.39
3.29 Goalkeeper saves 4.42
2.45 Offsides 1.49
18.08 Tackles per match 16.18

League average xG this season is 1.67 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax prediction analysis

Review Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eerste Divisie.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Eerste Divisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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