Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Dundee Utd vs Kilmarnock

Dundee Utd vs Kilmarnock prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premiership 2025-09-27 14:00
Dundee Utd
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
54%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Kilmarnock
Away

Prediction Summary

1
50%
X
24%
2
26%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Dundee Utd (Home)

Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match1.16
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate47%

Kilmarnock (Away)

Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match2.11
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Dundee Utd
DDLLW
Kilmarnock
WWWWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

63% +0.5 74%
47% +1.5 26%
16% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 54%. Model confidence is Medium.

Dundee Utd averages 1.26 goals scored at home, while Kilmarnock averages 1.16 goals scored away.

Model Strength
56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
50%
Draw
24%
Away Win
26%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
56%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Dundee Utd(A) 0 - 3 Kilmarnock Away
Feb 2026 Dundee Utd 1 - 1 Kilmarnock Draw
Nov 2025 Dundee Utd(A) 1 - 1 Kilmarnock Draw
Sep 2025 Dundee Utd 0 - 2 Kilmarnock Away
Aug 2025 Dundee Utd(A) 1 - 2 Kilmarnock Away

In the last 5 meetings, Dundee Utd won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Dundee Utd — unbeaten run (home)7
Dundee Utd — scoring streak (home)0
Kilmarnock — winless run (away)0
Kilmarnock — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Dundee Utd Win (1)50%
Draw (X)24%
Kilmarnock Win (2)26%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

63% +0.5 74%
47% +1.5 26%
16% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

37% -0.5 26%
53% -1.5 74%
84% -2.5 89%
100% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 100%

Dundee Utd vs Kilmarnock — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Dundee Utd — scored (home)1.26
Dundee Utd — conceded (home)1.16
Kilmarnock — scored (away)1.16
Kilmarnock — conceded (away)2.11
Model expected combined goals2.84

Both Teams To Score

Yes56%
No44%

Rate per Team

Dundee Utd — BTTS matches (home)47%
Kilmarnock — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)55%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.590%
Under 5.510%
Over 6.584%
Under 6.516%
Over 7.579%
Under 7.521%
Over 8.577%
Under 8.523%
Over 9.566%
Under 9.534%
Over 10.556%
Under 10.544%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Dundee Utd (home)

Corners for5.4
Corners against5.7

Kilmarnock (away)

Corners for3.8
Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Dundee Utd
6 12 6 15 12
Kilmarnock
11 12 5 8 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Dundee Utd (home)

For2.2

Kilmarnock (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Dundee Utd — total shots (home)14.6
Kilmarnock — total shots (away)9.2

Shots on Target

Dundee Utd — on target (home)4.7
Kilmarnock — on target (away)3.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Dundee Utd

Inside the box8.82
Outside the box4.42

Kilmarnock

Inside the box7.66
Outside the box3.68

Player Shots Dundee Utd

A. Ahmed Fatah
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target20%
Z. Sapsford
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target11%
M. Watters
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
O. Stirton
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target10%
I. Dolček
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target18%

Player Shots Kilmarnock

T. John-Jules
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target78%
+1.5 On Target22%
J. Hugill
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target27%
Findlay Curtis
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target29%
G. Kiltie
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target6%
D. Daniels
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target14%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Dundee Utd xG (home)1.21
Kilmarnock xG (away)1.36

Average Possession

42.26% Possession 42.45%

Team Comparison Dundee Utd vs Kilmarnock

68.03% Pass accuracy 73.08%
314.68 Passes per match 348.76
-0.18 Goals prevented 0.03
12.89 Fouls committed 13.13
3.32 Goalkeeper saves 3.55
1.69 Offsides 1.84
15.82 Tackles per match 15.47

League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Dundee Utd vs Kilmarnock prediction analysis

Review Dundee Utd vs Kilmarnock with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premiership.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premiership
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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