Prediction Analysis: Elche vs Barcelona
Elche vs Barcelona prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
La Liga
2026-08-23
19:30
Elche
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
60%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Barcelona
Away
Prediction Summary
1
37%
X
24%
2
38%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Elche (Home)
Goals scored / match1.58
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate58%
Barcelona (Away)
Goals scored / match2
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate32%
BTTS rate68%
Team Form last 5 matches
Elche
DWLDL
Barcelona
LWLWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
89%
+0.5
95%
47%
+1.5
58%
16%
+2.5
32%
5%
+3.5
11%
0%
+4.5
5%
58%
BTTS
68%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 60%. Model confidence is Medium.
Elche averages 1.58 goals scored at home, while Barcelona averages 2 goals scored away.
Model Strength
60%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
37%
Draw
24%
Away Win
38%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
Head-to-Head last 5
Jan 2026
Elche
1 - 3
Barcelona
Away
Nov 2025
Elche(A)
1 - 3
Barcelona
Away
Apr 2023
Elche
0 - 4
Barcelona
Away
Sep 2022
Elche(A)
0 - 3
Barcelona
Away
Mar 2022
Elche
1 - 2
Barcelona
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Elche won 0, drew 0 and lost 5.
Current Streaks
Elche — unbeaten run (home)7
Elche — scoring streak (home)6
Barcelona — winless run (away)2
Barcelona — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Elche Win (1)37%
Draw (X)24%
Barcelona Win (2)38%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
89%
+0.5
95%
47%
+1.5
58%
16%
+2.5
32%
5%
+3.5
11%
0%
+4.5
5%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
11%
-0.5
5%
53%
-1.5
42%
84%
-2.5
68%
95%
-3.5
89%
100%
-4.5
95%
Elche vs Barcelona — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Elche — scored (home)1.58
Elche — conceded (home)1
Barcelona — scored (away)2
Barcelona — conceded (away)1.37
Model expected combined goals2.97
Both Teams To Score
Yes60%
No40%
Rate per Team
Elche — BTTS matches (home)58%
Barcelona — BTTS matches (away)68%
Combined (simple average)63%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.60
Per-Team Corners own matches
Elche (home)
Corners for4.8
Corners against3.6
Barcelona (away)
Corners for6.7
Corners against4.8
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Elche
6
10
9
4
3
Barcelona
10
12
10
10
15
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7
Yellow Cards per Team
Elche (home)
For1.9
Barcelona (away)
For2.1
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.573%
Under 19.527%
Over 22.559%
Under 22.541%
Over 25.546%
Under 25.554%
Expected total shots25.49
Elche
Shots Over 9.568%
Shots Over 11.551%
Shots Over 13.536%
Expected shots12.18
On Target Over 3.561%
On Target Over 4.544%
On Target Over 5.529%
Expected on target4.42
Barcelona
Shots Over 9.574%
Shots Over 11.559%
Shots Over 13.544%
Expected shots13.31
On Target Over 3.564%
On Target Over 4.547%
On Target Over 5.532%
Expected on target4.59
Shots per Game
Elche — total shots (home)13.4
Barcelona — total shots (away)18.1
Shots on Target
Elche — on target (home)4.7
Barcelona — on target (away)6.1
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Elche
Inside the box7.53
Outside the box3.26
Barcelona
Inside the box12.05
Outside the box6.16
Player Shots Elche
Rafa Mir
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target74%
+1.5 On Target37%
André Silva
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target26%
Á. Rodríguez
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target18%
L. Cepeda
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
Héctor Fort
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target7%
Player Shots Barcelona
Lamine Yamal
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target39%
Ferran Torres
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target33%
Raphinha
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target32%
R. Lewandowski
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target19%
M. Rashford
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target25%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Elche xG (home)1.11
Barcelona xG (away)2.28
Average Possession
57.71%
Possession
68.79%
Team Comparison Elche vs Barcelona
84.63%
Pass accuracy
89.68%
498.37
Passes per match
652.61
-0.05
Goals prevented
-0.13
13.34
Fouls committed
9.47
3.13
Goalkeeper saves
2.55
1.64
Offsides
2.18
17.68
Tackles per match
16.26
League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Elche vs Barcelona prediction analysis
Review Elche vs Barcelona with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights