Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Empoli vs Venezia

Empoli vs Venezia prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-04-20 13:00
Empoli
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
35%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Venezia
Away

Prediction Summary

1
35%
X
30%
2
35%
Under 2.5
65%
BTTS No
58%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Empoli (Home)

Goals scored / match0.53
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate37%

Venezia (Away)

Goals scored / match0.79
Goals conceded / match1.79
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Empoli
LWWLL
Venezia
LLWDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

42% +0.5 58%
11% +1.5 21%
0% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
37% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 35%. Model confidence is Medium.

Empoli averages 0.53 goals scored at home, while Venezia averages 0.79 goals scored away.

Model Strength
65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
35%
Draw
30%
Away Win
35%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Yes
42%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Empoli(A) 0 - 2 Venezia Away
Oct 2025 Empoli 1 - 1 Venezia Draw
Apr 2025 Empoli 2 - 2 Venezia Draw
Jan 2025 Empoli(A) 1 - 1 Venezia Draw
Jan 2022 Empoli(A) 1 - 1 Venezia Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Empoli won 0, drew 4 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Empoli — unbeaten run (home)0
Empoli — scoring streak (home)2
Venezia — winless run (away)19
Venezia — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Empoli Win (1)35%
Draw (X)30%
Venezia Win (2)35%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

42% +0.5 58%
11% +1.5 21%
0% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

58% -0.5 42%
89% -1.5 79%
100% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Empoli vs Venezia — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Empoli — scored (home)0.53
Empoli — conceded (home)1.37
Venezia — scored (away)0.79
Venezia — conceded (away)1.79
Model expected combined goals2.08

Both Teams To Score

Yes42%
No58%

Rate per Team

Empoli — BTTS matches (home)37%
Venezia — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)47.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.587%
Under 5.513%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.566%
Under 7.534%
Over 8.561%
Under 8.539%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.40

Per-Team Corners own matches

Empoli (home)

Corners for4.4
Corners against4.6

Venezia (away)

Corners for3.5
Corners against6.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Empoli
7 9 4 8 14
Venezia
9 6 6 16 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Empoli (home)

For1.6

Venezia (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

Empoli — total shots (home)9.2
Venezia — total shots (away)9.3

Shots on Target

Empoli — on target (home)2.8
Venezia — on target (away)2.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Empoli

Inside the box5.53
Outside the box4.21

Venezia

Inside the box5.97
Outside the box4.21

Player Shots Empoli

C. Kouamé
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%
L. Colombo
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target11%
S. Esposito
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target15%
P. Pellegri
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%
L. Cacace
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots Venezia

J. Pohjanpalo
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target25%
H. Nicolussi
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Duncan
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target6%
G. Oristanio
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target5%
D. Fila
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Empoli xG (home)0.86
Venezia xG (away)0.99

Average Possession

41.29% Possession 44.84%

Team Comparison Empoli vs Venezia

73.97% Pass accuracy 77.79%
324.47 Passes per match 359.11
-0.1 Goals prevented 0.04
14.95 Fouls committed 13.24
2.78 Goalkeeper saves 3.7
1.63 Offsides 1.57
18.13 Tackles per match 15.95

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Empoli vs Venezia prediction analysis

Review Empoli vs Venezia with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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