Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Envigado vs Independiente Medellin

Envigado vs Independiente Medellin prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-02-09 19:00
Envigado
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
40%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-1
Independiente Medellin
Away

Prediction Summary

1
26%
X
28%
2
47%
Under 2.5
60%
BTTS No
55%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Envigado (Home)

Goals scored / match0.75
Goals conceded / match1.4
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate60%

Independiente Medellin (Away)

Goals scored / match1.33
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate19%
BTTS rate52%

Team Form last 5 matches

Envigado
WDLLL
Independiente Medellin
WLDLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

60% +0.5 70%
10% +1.5 33%
5% +2.5 19%
0% +3.5 7%
0% +4.5 4%
60% BTTS 52%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 40%. Model confidence is Medium.

Envigado averages 0.75 goals scored at home, while Independiente Medellin averages 1.33 goals scored away.

Model Strength
60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
26%
Draw
28%
Away Win
47%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Yes
45%

Head-to-Head last 2

Jul 2025 Envigado(A) 4 - 3 Independiente Medellin Home
Feb 2025 Envigado 0 - 1 Independiente Medellin Away

In the last 2 meetings, Envigado won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Envigado — unbeaten run (home)1
Envigado — scoring streak (home)1
Independiente Medellin — winless run (away)3
Independiente Medellin — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Envigado Win (1)26%
Draw (X)28%
Independiente Medellin Win (2)47%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

60% +0.5 70%
10% +1.5 33%
5% +2.5 19%
0% +3.5 7%
0% +4.5 4%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

40% -0.5 30%
90% -1.5 67%
95% -2.5 81%
100% -3.5 93%
100% -4.5 96%

Envigado vs Independiente Medellin — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Envigado — scored (home)0.75
Envigado — conceded (home)1.4
Independiente Medellin — scored (away)1.33
Independiente Medellin — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals2.3

Both Teams To Score

Yes45%
No55%

Rate per Team

Envigado — BTTS matches (home)60%
Independiente Medellin — BTTS matches (away)52%
Combined (simple average)56%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%
Under 4.58%
Over 5.587%
Under 5.513%
Over 6.580%
Under 6.520%
Over 7.567%
Under 7.533%
Over 8.546%
Under 8.554%
Over 9.535%
Under 9.565%
Over 10.531%
Under 10.569%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Envigado (home)

Corners for4.3
Corners against5.2

Independiente Medellin (away)

Corners for5.3
Corners against3.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Envigado
3 4 12 6 8
Independiente Medellin
12 7 4 3 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.592%
Under 2.58%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Envigado (home)

For4.3

Independiente Medellin (away)

For3.1

Shots per Game

Envigado — total shots (home)10.6
Independiente Medellin — total shots (away)14.1

Shots on Target

Envigado — on target (home)3.1
Independiente Medellin — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Envigado

Inside the box5.23
Outside the box5.13

Independiente Medellin

Inside the box7.78
Outside the box8.04

Player Shots Envigado

D. Pabón
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target50%
D. Arcila
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target19%
E. López
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target8%
B. Garcés
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target8%
W. Hurtado
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target5%

Player Shots Independiente Medellin

B. Leon
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target38%
F. Fydriszewski
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Berrío
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Barrera
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target5%
F. Chaverra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Envigado xG (home)1.15
Independiente Medellin xG (away)1.4

Average Possession

43.18% Possession 56.72%

Team Comparison Envigado vs Independiente Medellin

74.7% Pass accuracy 80.91%
285.13 Passes per match 412.61
0 Goals prevented 0
14.18 Fouls committed 11.06
2.9 Goalkeeper saves 2.41
1.74 Offsides 1.26
11.08 Tackles per match 10.46

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Envigado vs Independiente Medellin prediction analysis

Review Envigado vs Independiente Medellin with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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