Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Envigado vs Millonarios

Envigado vs Millonarios prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-11-07 20:30
Envigado
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
40%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Millonarios
Away

Prediction Summary

1
29%
X
28%
2
43%
Under 2.5
60%
BTTS No
54%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Envigado (Home)

Goals scored / match0.75
Goals conceded / match1.4
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate60%

Millonarios (Away)

Goals scored / match1.17
Goals conceded / match1.26
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate48%

Team Form last 5 matches

Envigado
WDLLL
Millonarios
WDDWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

60% +0.5 74%
10% +1.5 39%
5% +2.5 4%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
60% BTTS 48%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 40%. Model confidence is Medium.

Envigado averages 0.75 goals scored at home, while Millonarios averages 1.17 goals scored away.

Model Strength
60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
29%
Draw
28%
Away Win
43%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Yes
46%

Head-to-Head last 2

Nov 2025 Envigado 1 - 1 Millonarios Draw
May 2025 Envigado(A) 0 - 1 Millonarios Away

In the last 2 meetings, Envigado won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Envigado — unbeaten run (home)1
Envigado — scoring streak (home)1
Millonarios — winless run (away)0
Millonarios — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Envigado Win (1)29%
Draw (X)28%
Millonarios Win (2)43%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

60% +0.5 74%
10% +1.5 39%
5% +2.5 4%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

40% -0.5 26%
90% -1.5 61%
95% -2.5 96%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Envigado vs Millonarios — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Envigado — scored (home)0.75
Envigado — conceded (home)1.4
Millonarios — scored (away)1.17
Millonarios — conceded (away)1.26
Model expected combined goals2.29

Both Teams To Score

Yes46%
No54%

Rate per Team

Envigado — BTTS matches (home)60%
Millonarios — BTTS matches (away)48%
Combined (simple average)54%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.596%
Under 4.54%
Over 5.591%
Under 5.59%
Over 6.575%
Under 6.525%
Over 7.559%
Under 7.541%
Over 8.545%
Under 8.555%
Over 9.535%
Under 9.565%
Over 10.531%
Under 10.569%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Envigado (home)

Corners for4.3
Corners against5.2

Millonarios (away)

Corners for3.5
Corners against5.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Envigado
3 4 12 6 8
Millonarios
10 6 14 6 2

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.598%
Under 2.52%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)7.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Envigado (home)

For4.3

Millonarios (away)

For3.5

Shots per Game

Envigado — total shots (home)10.6
Millonarios — total shots (away)11.7

Shots on Target

Envigado — on target (home)3.1
Millonarios — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Envigado

Inside the box5.23
Outside the box5.13

Millonarios

Inside the box7.33
Outside the box6.74

Player Shots Envigado

D. Pabón
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target50%
D. Arcila
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target19%
E. López
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target8%
B. Garcés
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target8%
W. Hurtado
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target5%

Player Shots Millonarios

Beckham Castro
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target21%
J. Cabezas
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target31%
D. Ruiz
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target19%
R. Falcao
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target17%
L. Castro
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target26%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Envigado xG (home)1.15
Millonarios xG (away)1.14

Average Possession

43.18% Possession 51.83%

Team Comparison Envigado vs Millonarios

74.7% Pass accuracy 80.8%
285.13 Passes per match 372.59
0 Goals prevented 0
14.18 Fouls committed 11.65
2.9 Goalkeeper saves 2.78
1.74 Offsides 1.8
11.08 Tackles per match 13.87

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Envigado vs Millonarios prediction analysis

Review Envigado vs Millonarios with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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