Prediction Analysis: Erzgebirge Aue vs Waldhof Mannheim
Erzgebirge Aue vs Waldhof Mannheim prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
3. Liga
2025-10-17
17:00
Erzgebirge Aue
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
57%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Waldhof Mannheim
Away
Prediction Summary
1
38%
X
25%
2
38%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
59%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Erzgebirge Aue (Home)
Goals scored / match1.32
Goals conceded / match1.68
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate53%
Waldhof Mannheim (Away)
Goals scored / match1.37
Goals conceded / match2.21
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate68%
Team Form last 5 matches
Erzgebirge Aue
WDWDD
Waldhof Mannheim
LWLDD
Goals Comparison rate per team
63%
+0.5
74%
42%
+1.5
42%
16%
+2.5
21%
11%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
53%
BTTS
68%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 57%. Model confidence is Medium.
Erzgebirge Aue averages 1.32 goals scored at home, while Waldhof Mannheim averages 1.37 goals scored away.
Model Strength
59%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
38%
Draw
25%
Away Win
38%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
59%
Head-to-Head last 2
Mar 2026
Erzgebirge Aue(A)
1 - 2
Waldhof Mannheim
Away
Oct 2025
Erzgebirge Aue
0 - 2
Waldhof Mannheim
Away
In the last 2 meetings, Erzgebirge Aue won 0, drew 0 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Erzgebirge Aue — unbeaten run (home)3
Erzgebirge Aue — scoring streak (home)0
Waldhof Mannheim — winless run (away)8
Waldhof Mannheim — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Erzgebirge Aue Win (1)38%
Draw (X)25%
Waldhof Mannheim Win (2)38%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
63%
+0.5
74%
42%
+1.5
42%
16%
+2.5
21%
11%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
37%
-0.5
26%
58%
-1.5
58%
84%
-2.5
79%
89%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Erzgebirge Aue vs Waldhof Mannheim — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Erzgebirge Aue — scored (home)1.32
Erzgebirge Aue — conceded (home)1.68
Waldhof Mannheim — scored (away)1.37
Waldhof Mannheim — conceded (away)2.21
Model expected combined goals2.95
Both Teams To Score
Yes59%
No41%
Rate per Team
Erzgebirge Aue — BTTS matches (home)53%
Waldhof Mannheim — BTTS matches (away)68%
Combined (simple average)60.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.582%
Under 4.518%
Over 5.575%
Under 5.525%
Over 6.572%
Under 6.528%
Over 7.569%
Under 7.531%
Over 8.554%
Under 8.546%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.90
Per-Team Corners own matches
Erzgebirge Aue (home)
Corners for5.1
Corners against6.9
Waldhof Mannheim (away)
Corners for4.3
Corners against5.5
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Erzgebirge Aue
0
17
4
8
0
Waldhof Mannheim
0
14
0
0
0
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.588%
Under 2.512%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6
Yellow Cards per Team
Erzgebirge Aue (home)
For2.2
Waldhof Mannheim (away)
For2.6
Shots per Game
Erzgebirge Aue — total shots (home)11.8
Waldhof Mannheim — total shots (away)11.0
Shots on Target
Erzgebirge Aue — on target (home)3.7
Waldhof Mannheim — on target (away)3.4
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Erzgebirge Aue
Inside the box6.46
Outside the box4.58
Waldhof Mannheim
Inside the box7.96
Outside the box5.25
Player Shots Erzgebirge Aue
M. Bär
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target17%
J. Guttau
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
E. Weinhauer
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target5%
M. Stefaniak
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target13%
J. Fabisch
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target6%
Player Shots Waldhof Mannheim
K. Okpala
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target29%
F. Lohkemper
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target35%
T. Boyd
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target22%
K. Asallari
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target8%
N. Shipnoski
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target17%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Erzgebirge Aue xG (home)1.29
Waldhof Mannheim xG (away)1.6
Average Possession
47.31%
Possession
48.38%
Team Comparison Erzgebirge Aue vs Waldhof Mannheim
79%
Pass accuracy
79.08%
381.04
Passes per match
387.75
0
Goals prevented
0
11.04
Fouls committed
13.17
3.73
Goalkeeper saves
3
2.04
Offsides
1.75
3.08
Tackles per match
3.5
League average xG this season is 1.6 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Erzgebirge Aue vs Waldhof Mannheim prediction analysis
Review Erzgebirge Aue vs Waldhof Mannheim with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from 3. Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
3. Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights