Prediction Analysis: Espanyol vs Real Madrid
Espanyol vs Real Madrid prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
La Liga
2026-08-22
19:30
Espanyol
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Real Madrid
Away
Prediction Summary
1
27%
X
26%
2
47%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Espanyol (Home)
Goals scored / match1.11
Goals conceded / match1.26
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate53%
Real Madrid (Away)
Goals scored / match1.68
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
Espanyol
DWWLL
Real Madrid
WWWLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
74%
+0.5
89%
32%
+1.5
58%
5%
+2.5
16%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
53%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.
Espanyol averages 1.11 goals scored at home, while Real Madrid averages 1.68 goals scored away.
Model Strength
54%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
27%
Draw
26%
Away Win
47%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Espanyol
0 - 2
Real Madrid
Away
Sep 2025
Espanyol(A)
0 - 2
Real Madrid
Away
Feb 2025
Espanyol
1 - 0
Real Madrid
Home
Sep 2024
Espanyol(A)
1 - 4
Real Madrid
Away
Mar 2023
Espanyol(A)
1 - 3
Real Madrid
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Espanyol won 1, drew 0 and lost 4.
Current Streaks
Espanyol — unbeaten run (home)2
Espanyol — scoring streak (home)2
Real Madrid — winless run (away)0
Real Madrid — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Espanyol Win (1)27%
Draw (X)26%
Real Madrid Win (2)47%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
74%
+0.5
89%
32%
+1.5
58%
5%
+2.5
16%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
26%
-0.5
11%
68%
-1.5
42%
95%
-2.5
84%
100%
-3.5
95%
100%
-4.5
100%
Espanyol vs Real Madrid — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Espanyol — scored (home)1.11
Espanyol — conceded (home)1.26
Real Madrid — scored (away)1.68
Real Madrid — conceded (away)1
Model expected combined goals2.53
Both Teams To Score
Yes50%
No50%
Rate per Team
Espanyol — BTTS matches (home)53%
Real Madrid — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)53%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.60
Per-Team Corners own matches
Espanyol (home)
Corners for5.2
Corners against4.7
Real Madrid (away)
Corners for6.1
Corners against4.3
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Espanyol
11
10
17
11
8
Real Madrid
11
12
9
8
3
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7
Yellow Cards per Team
Espanyol (home)
For2.3
Real Madrid (away)
For1.7
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.571%
Under 19.529%
Over 22.558%
Under 22.542%
Over 25.545%
Under 25.555%
Expected total shots25.20
Espanyol
Shots Over 9.569%
Shots Over 11.553%
Shots Over 13.538%
Expected shots12.39
On Target Over 3.557%
On Target Over 4.540%
On Target Over 5.526%
Expected on target4.18
Real Madrid
Shots Over 9.571%
Shots Over 11.556%
Shots Over 13.541%
Expected shots12.80
On Target Over 3.564%
On Target Over 4.547%
On Target Over 5.533%
Expected on target4.62
Shots per Game
Espanyol — total shots (home)13.4
Real Madrid — total shots (away)15.9
Shots on Target
Espanyol — on target (home)4.8
Real Madrid — on target (away)5.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Espanyol
Inside the box7.97
Outside the box4.66
Real Madrid
Inside the box11.13
Outside the box6.34
Player Shots Espanyol
Javi Puado
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target30%
Kike García
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target11%
Pere Milla
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target12%
Roberto Fernández
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target11%
C. Ngonge
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
Player Shots Real Madrid
Kylian Mbappé
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target84%
+1.5 On Target68%
Vinícius Júnior
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target72%
+1.5 On Target36%
J. Bellingham
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target32%
F. Valverde
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target15%
Rodrygo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target11%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Espanyol xG (home)1.28
Real Madrid xG (away)2.05
Average Possession
42.34%
Possession
59.39%
Team Comparison Espanyol vs Real Madrid
77.45%
Pass accuracy
89.18%
348
Passes per match
587.05
0.09
Goals prevented
0.02
13.68
Fouls committed
10
3.55
Goalkeeper saves
2.26
1.94
Offsides
2.23
16.13
Tackles per match
15.55
League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Espanyol vs Real Madrid prediction analysis
Review Espanyol vs Real Madrid with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights