Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Estac Troyes vs Marseille

Estac Troyes vs Marseille prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Ligue 1 2026-10-10 15:00
Estac Troyes
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Marseille
Away

Prediction Summary

1
35%
X
27%
2
38%
+2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Estac Troyes (Home)

Goals scored / match0
Goals conceded / match0
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate0%

Marseille (Away)

Goals scored / match1.29
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate35%

Team Form last 5 matches

Marseille
WWLDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

0% +0.5 59%
0% +1.5 29%
0% +2.5 18%
0% +3.5 12%
0% +4.5 12%
0% BTTS 35%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.

Estac Troyes averages 0 goals scored at home, while Marseille averages 1.29 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
35%
Draw
27%
Away Win
38%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
51%

Head-to-Head last 4

Apr 2023 Estac Troyes(A) 1 - 3 Marseille Away
Jan 2023 Estac Troyes 0 - 2 Marseille Away
Feb 2022 Estac Troyes 1 - 1 Marseille Draw
Nov 2021 Estac Troyes(A) 0 - 1 Marseille Away

In the last 4 meetings, Estac Troyes won 0, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Marseille — winless run (away)0
Marseille — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Estac Troyes Win (1)35%
Draw (X)27%
Marseille Win (2)38%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

0% +0.5 59%
0% +1.5 29%
0% +2.5 18%
0% +3.5 12%
0% +4.5 12%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

100% -0.5 41%
100% -1.5 71%
100% -2.5 82%
100% -3.5 88%
100% -4.5 88%

Estac Troyes vs Marseille — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Estac Troyes — scored (home)0
Estac Troyes — conceded (home)0
Marseille — scored (away)1.29
Marseille — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals2.53

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%
No49%

Rate per Team

Estac Troyes — BTTS matches (home)0%
Marseille — BTTS matches (away)35%
Combined (simple average)17.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Estac Troyes (home)

Corners for—
Corners against—

Marseille (away)

Corners for4.8
Corners against4.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Marseille
8 8 15 3 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.547%
Under 0.553%
Over 1.547%
Under 1.553%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Estac Troyes (home)

For—

Marseille (away)

For2.7

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.571%
Under 19.529%
Over 22.557%
Under 22.543%
Over 25.543%
Under 25.557%
Expected total shots24.86

Estac Troyes

Shots Over 9.568%
Shots Over 11.552%
Shots Over 13.536%
Expected shots12.21
On Target Over 3.560%
On Target Over 4.543%
On Target Over 5.529%
Expected on target4.36

Marseille

Shots Over 9.571%
Shots Over 11.555%
Shots Over 13.540%
Expected shots12.65
On Target Over 3.562%
On Target Over 4.546%
On Target Over 5.531%
Expected on target4.52

Shots per Game

Estac Troyes — total shots (home)—
Marseille — total shots (away)14.4

Shots on Target

Estac Troyes — on target (home)—
Marseille — on target (away)5.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Estac Troyes

Inside the box-
Outside the box-

Marseille

Inside the box9.62
Outside the box5.47

Player Shots Estac Troyes

Not enough dataNot enough player match statistics for this squad.

Player Shots Marseille

M. Greenwood
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target41%
P. Aubameyang
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target30%
A. Gouiri
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target14%
Igor Paixão
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target13%
H. Traorè
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Estac Troyes xG (home)-
Marseille xG (away)1.81

Average Possession

-% Possession 56.94%

Team Comparison Estac Troyes vs Marseille

0% Pass accuracy 87.15%
- Passes per match 540.71
- Goals prevented -0.27
- Fouls committed 12.71
- Goalkeeper saves 2.62
- Offsides 1.24
- Tackles per match 14.91

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Estac Troyes vs Marseille prediction analysis

Review Estac Troyes vs Marseille with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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