What markets are included in the Estoril vs Estrela prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Estoril vs Estrela prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Estoril vs Estrela

Estoril vs Estrela prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-05-17 17:00

Estoril

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

37%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Estrela

Away

Prediction Summary

45%

29%

26%

Under 2.5

63%

BTTS No

57%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Estoril (Home)

Goals scored / match1.35

Goals conceded / match1.35

Over 2.5 rate12%

BTTS rate53%

Estrela (Away)

Goals scored / match0.35

Goals conceded / match1.53

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate24%

Team Form last 5 matches

Estoril

WDLWL

Estrela

LLLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

71% +0.5 35%

41% +1.5 0%

12% +2.5 0%

12% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

53% BTTS 24%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 37%. Model confidence is Medium.

Estoril averages 1.35 goals scored at home, while Estrela averages 0.35 goals scored away.

Model Strength

63%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

45%

Draw

29%

Away Win

26%

Over 2.5

37%

BTTS Yes

43%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Estoril(A) 5 - 0 Estrela Home

Aug 2025 Estoril 1 - 1 Estrela Draw

May 2025 Estoril 4 - 0 Estrela Home

Jan 2025 Estoril(A) 4 - 2 Estrela Home

Feb 2024 Estoril 1 - 0 Estrela Home

In the last 5 meetings, Estoril won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Estoril — unbeaten run (home)1

Estoril — scoring streak (home)2

Estrela — winless run (away)3

Estrela — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Estoril Win (1)45%

Draw (X)29%

Estrela Win (2)26%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

71% +0.5 35%

41% +1.5 0%

12% +2.5 0%

12% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

29% -0.5 65%

59% -1.5 100%

88% -2.5 100%

88% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Estoril vs Estrela — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Estoril — scored (home)1.35

Estoril — conceded (home)1.35

Estrela — scored (away)0.35

Estrela — conceded (away)1.53

Model expected combined goals2.19

Both Teams To Score

Yes43%

No57%

Rate per Team

Estoril — BTTS matches (home)53%

Estrela — BTTS matches (away)24%

Combined (simple average)38.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.591%

Under 4.59%

Over 5.588%

Under 5.512%

Over 6.585%

Under 6.515%

Over 7.571%

Under 7.529%

Over 8.550%

Under 8.550%

Over 9.541%

Under 9.559%

Over 10.538%

Under 10.562%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Estoril (home)

Corners for3.8

Corners against5.0

Estrela (away)

Corners for3.9

Corners against6.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Estoril

Estrela

8 16 8 7 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.597%

Under 1.53%

Over 2.591%

Under 2.59%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Estoril (home)

For2.6

Estrela (away)

For3.1

Shots per Game

Estoril — total shots (home)10.1

Estrela — total shots (away)9.2

Shots on Target

Estoril — on target (home)3.6

Estrela — on target (away)2.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Estoril

Inside the box5.38

Outside the box4.53

Estrela

Inside the box5.41

Outside the box4.32

Player Shots Estoril

André Lacximicant

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target37%

+1.5 On Target11%

Xeka

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target14%

+1.5 On Target7%

Y. Begraoui

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target12%

Fabrício Garcia

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target17%

+1.5 On Target4%

K. Boma

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target24%

+1.5 On Target3%

Player Shots Estrela

Igor Jesus

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target8%

+1.5 On Target8%

Nilton Varela

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target4%

+1.5 On Target4%

André Luiz

Shots on Target/Game1.8

+0.5 On Target36%

+1.5 On Target18%

Kikas

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target13%

Chico Banza

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target23%

+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Estoril xG (home)1.17

Estrela xG (away)0.8

Average Possession

49.06% Possession 44.62%

Team Comparison Estoril vs Estrela

79.91% Pass accuracy 74.65%

404.68 Passes per match 325.97

-0.05 Goals prevented -0.13

15.88 Fouls committed 15.32

2.79 Goalkeeper saves 3.09

1.24 Offsides 2.09

15.62 Tackles per match 18

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Estoril vs Estrela prediction analysis

Review Estoril vs Estrela with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights