What markets are included in the Estoril vs Nacional prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Estoril vs Nacional prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Estoril vs Nacional

Estoril vs Nacional prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2024-09-15 17:00

Estoril

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

40%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Nacional

Away

Prediction Summary

46%

28%

26%

Under 2.5

60%

BTTS No

55%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Estoril (Home)

Goals scored / match1.35

Goals conceded / match1.35

Over 2.5 rate12%

BTTS rate53%

Nacional (Away)

Goals scored / match0.53

Goals conceded / match1.35

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate29%

Team Form last 5 matches

Estoril

WDLWL

Nacional

LDLDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

71% +0.5 41%

41% +1.5 12%

12% +2.5 0%

12% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

53% BTTS 29%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 40%. Model confidence is Medium.

Estoril averages 1.35 goals scored at home, while Nacional averages 0.53 goals scored away.

Model Strength

60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

46%

Draw

28%

Away Win

26%

Over 2.5

40%

BTTS Yes

45%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Estoril(A) 1 - 0 Nacional Home

Oct 2025 Estoril 1 - 1 Nacional Draw

Feb 2025 Estoril(A) 2 - 2 Nacional Draw

Sep 2024 Estoril 1 - 0 Nacional Home

Jul 2021 Estoril(A) 2 - 1 Nacional Home

In the last 5 meetings, Estoril won 3, drew 2 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Estoril — unbeaten run (home)1

Estoril — scoring streak (home)2

Nacional — winless run (away)2

Nacional — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Estoril Win (1)46%

Draw (X)28%

Nacional Win (2)26%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

71% +0.5 41%

41% +1.5 12%

12% +2.5 0%

12% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

29% -0.5 59%

59% -1.5 88%

88% -2.5 100%

88% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Estoril vs Nacional — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Estoril — scored (home)1.35

Estoril — conceded (home)1.35

Nacional — scored (away)0.53

Nacional — conceded (away)1.35

Model expected combined goals2.29

Both Teams To Score

Yes45%

No55%

Rate per Team

Estoril — BTTS matches (home)53%

Nacional — BTTS matches (away)29%

Combined (simple average)41%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.591%

Under 4.59%

Over 5.591%

Under 5.59%

Over 6.585%

Under 6.515%

Over 7.568%

Under 7.532%

Over 8.550%

Under 8.550%

Over 9.544%

Under 9.556%

Over 10.541%

Under 10.559%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Estoril (home)

Corners for3.8

Corners against5.0

Nacional (away)

Corners for4.5

Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Estoril

Nacional

9 7 9 9 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.591%

Under 1.59%

Over 2.574%

Under 2.526%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Estoril (home)

For2.6

Nacional (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

Estoril — total shots (home)10.1

Nacional — total shots (away)12.3

Shots on Target

Estoril — on target (home)3.6

Nacional — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Estoril

Inside the box5.38

Outside the box4.53

Nacional

Inside the box7.21

Outside the box6.15

Player Shots Estoril

André Lacximicant

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target37%

+1.5 On Target11%

Xeka

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target14%

+1.5 On Target7%

Y. Begraoui

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target12%

Fabrício Garcia

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target17%

+1.5 On Target4%

K. Boma

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target24%

+1.5 On Target3%

Player Shots Nacional

Dudu

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target14%

Paulinho Bóia

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target13%

N. Thomas

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target11%

Daniel Penha

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Rúben Macedo

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target4%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Estoril xG (home)1.17

Nacional xG (away)1.03

Average Possession

49.06% Possession 47.29%

Team Comparison Estoril vs Nacional

79.91% Pass accuracy 76.94%

404.68 Passes per match 339.32

-0.05 Goals prevented 0

15.88 Fouls committed 13.5

2.79 Goalkeeper saves 3.15

1.24 Offsides 1.65

15.62 Tackles per match 15.94

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Estoril vs Nacional prediction analysis

Review Estoril vs Nacional with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights