What markets are included in the Estrela vs Farense prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Estrela vs Farense prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Estrela vs Farense

Estrela vs Farense prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-04-13 14:30

Estrela

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

46%

Confidence

Low

Score

1-1

Farense

Away

Prediction Summary

38%

27%

35%

Under 2.5

54%

BTTS Yes

51%

Confidence

Low

Market Evidence

Estrela (Home)

Goals scored / match1.06

Goals conceded / match1.41

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate41%

Farense (Away)

Goals scored / match0.88

Goals conceded / match1.29

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Estrela

LLLWL

Farense

LWWLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

59% +0.5 59%

47% +1.5 29%

0% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

41% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.

Estrela averages 1.06 goals scored at home, while Farense averages 0.88 goals scored away.

Model Strength

54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

38%

Draw

27%

Away Win

35%

Over 2.5

46%

BTTS Yes

51%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2025 Estrela 0 - 1 Farense Away

Nov 2024 Estrela(A) 0 - 1 Farense Away

Apr 2024 Estrela 0 - 3 Farense Away

Dec 2023 Estrela(A) 0 - 0 Farense Draw

Feb 2023 Estrela(A) 2 - 2 Farense Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Estrela won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Estrela — unbeaten run (home)0

Estrela — scoring streak (home)0

Farense — winless run (away)0

Farense — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Estrela Win (1)38%

Draw (X)27%

Farense Win (2)35%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

59% +0.5 59%

47% +1.5 29%

0% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

41% -0.5 41%

53% -1.5 71%

100% -2.5 100%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Estrela vs Farense — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Estrela — scored (home)1.06

Estrela — conceded (home)1.41

Farense — scored (away)0.88

Farense — conceded (away)1.29

Model expected combined goals2.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%

No49%

Rate per Team

Estrela — BTTS matches (home)41%

Farense — BTTS matches (away)53%

Combined (simple average)47%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.594%

Under 5.56%

Over 6.585%

Under 6.515%

Over 7.574%

Under 7.526%

Over 8.571%

Under 8.529%

Over 9.547%

Under 9.553%

Over 10.538%

Under 10.562%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Estrela (home)

Corners for3.9

Corners against5.3

Farense (away)

Corners for3.9

Corners against7.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Estrela

8 16 8 7 8

Farense

8 5 14 19 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.588%

Under 1.512%

Over 2.579%

Under 2.521%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Estrela (home)

For2.9

Farense (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Estrela — total shots (home)10.2

Farense — total shots (away)9.8

Shots on Target

Estrela — on target (home)2.7

Farense — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Estrela

Inside the box5.41

Outside the box4.32

Farense

Inside the box6.65

Outside the box4.68

Player Shots Estrela

Igor Jesus

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target8%

+1.5 On Target8%

Nilton Varela

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target4%

+1.5 On Target4%

André Luiz

Shots on Target/Game1.8

+0.5 On Target36%

+1.5 On Target18%

Kikas

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target13%

Chico Banza

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target23%

+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Farense

Y. Njie

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target21%

+1.5 On Target7%

M. Belloumi

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target100%

+1.5 On Target67%

Rony Lopes

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target21%

Darío Poveda

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target5%

Tómané

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Estrela xG (home)0.8

Farense xG (away)0.9

Average Possession

44.62% Possession 40.79%

Team Comparison Estrela vs Farense

74.65% Pass accuracy 71.71%

325.97 Passes per match 293.85

-0.13 Goals prevented 0.28

15.32 Fouls committed 15.21

3.09 Goalkeeper saves 3.09

2.09 Offsides 1.97

18 Tackles per match 17.56

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Estrela vs Farense prediction analysis

Review Estrela vs Farense with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights