What markets are included in the Estrela vs Nacional prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Estrela vs Nacional prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Estrela vs Nacional

Estrela vs Nacional prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-11-09 15:30

Estrela

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

35%

Confidence

Medium

Score

0-1

Nacional

Away

Prediction Summary

28%

30%

43%

Under 2.5

65%

BTTS No

59%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Estrela (Home)

Goals scored / match1.24

Goals conceded / match1.41

Over 2.5 rate24%

BTTS rate41%

Nacional (Away)

Goals scored / match0.82

Goals conceded / match1.29

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate47%

Team Form last 5 matches

Estrela

DDLLL

Nacional

WLLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

59% +0.5 65%

35% +1.5 18%

24% +2.5 0%

6% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

41% BTTS 47%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 35%. Model confidence is Medium.

Estrela averages 1.24 goals scored at home, while Nacional averages 0.82 goals scored away.

Model Strength

65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

28%

Draw

30%

Away Win

43%

Over 2.5

35%

BTTS Yes

41%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jul 2026 Estrela 2 - 0 Nacional Home

Apr 2026 Estrela(A) 0 - 2 Nacional Away

Nov 2025 Estrela 1 - 1 Nacional Draw

Apr 2025 Estrela(A) 1 - 0 Nacional Home

Nov 2024 Estrela 2 - 0 Nacional Home

In the last 5 meetings, Estrela won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Estrela — unbeaten run (home)1

Estrela — scoring streak (home)0

Nacional — winless run (away)1

Nacional — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Estrela Win (1)28%

Draw (X)30%

Nacional Win (2)43%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

59% +0.5 65%

35% +1.5 18%

24% +2.5 0%

6% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

41% -0.5 35%

65% -1.5 82%

76% -2.5 100%

94% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Estrela vs Nacional — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Estrela — scored (home)1.24

Estrela — conceded (home)1.41

Nacional — scored (away)0.82

Nacional — conceded (away)1.29

Model expected combined goals2.1

Both Teams To Score

Yes41%

No59%

Rate per Team

Estrela — BTTS matches (home)41%

Nacional — BTTS matches (away)47%

Combined (simple average)44%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%

Under 4.53%

Over 5.582%

Under 5.518%

Over 6.579%

Under 6.521%

Over 7.576%

Under 7.524%

Over 8.559%

Under 8.541%

Over 9.547%

Under 9.553%

Over 10.539%

Under 10.561%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Estrela (home)

Corners for3.6

Corners against5.5

Nacional (away)

Corners for4.0

Corners against5.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Estrela

7 6 5 13 8

Nacional

12 15 14 10 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.597%

Under 1.53%

Over 2.588%

Under 2.512%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Estrela (home)

For2.6

Nacional (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Estrela — total shots (home)13.1

Nacional — total shots (away)12.5

Shots on Target

Estrela — on target (home)3.9

Nacional — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Estrela

Inside the box5.97

Outside the box4.88

Nacional

Inside the box7.32

Outside the box5.24

Player Shots Estrela

Kikas

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target59%

+1.5 On Target24%

Jovane Cabral

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target19%

S. Lopes Cabral

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target7%

Rodrigo Pinho

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target28%

+1.5 On Target17%

A. Marcus

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target42%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Nacional

C. Ramírez

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target85%

+1.5 On Target36%

Paulinho Bóia

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target12%

Daniel Júnior

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target53%

+1.5 On Target0%

Gabriel Veron

Shots on Target/Game0.3

+0.5 On Target23%

+1.5 On Target8%

Zé Vitor

Shots on Target/Game0.3

+0.5 On Target30%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Estrela xG (home)1.2

Nacional xG (away)1.15

Average Possession

46.88% Possession 46.12%

Team Comparison Estrela vs Nacional

79.41% Pass accuracy 75.62%

354.35 Passes per match 332.56

0.08 Goals prevented 0.02

14.44 Fouls committed 14.91

2.91 Goalkeeper saves 3.12

1.82 Offsides 1.39

15.65 Tackles per match 16.41

League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Estrela vs Nacional prediction analysis

Review Estrela vs Nacional with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights