Prediction Analysis: Estrela vs Sporting CP
Estrela vs Sporting CP prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primeira Liga
2026-08-08
19:30
Estrela
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Away Win
Pick
Sporting CP
Probability
57%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-1
Sporting CP
Away
Prediction Summary
1
20%
X
23%
2
57%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Estrela (Home)
Goals scored / match1.24
Goals conceded / match1.41
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate41%
Sporting CP (Away)
Goals scored / match2.24
Goals conceded / match0.76
Over 2.5 rate35%
BTTS rate71%
Team Form last 5 matches
Estrela
DDLLL
Sporting CP
WWWDD
Goals Comparison rate per team
59%
+0.5
100%
35%
+1.5
65%
24%
+2.5
35%
6%
+3.5
24%
0%
+4.5
0%
41%
BTTS
71%
Model Insight
The selected market is Away Win with a probability of 57%. Model confidence is Medium.
Estrela averages 1.24 goals scored at home, while Sporting CP averages 2.24 goals scored away.
Model Strength
57%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
20%
Draw
23%
Away Win
57%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Estrela
0 - 1
Sporting CP
Away
Nov 2025
Estrela(A)
0 - 4
Sporting CP
Away
Mar 2025
Estrela
0 - 3
Sporting CP
Away
Nov 2024
Estrela(A)
1 - 5
Sporting CP
Away
Mar 2024
Estrela
1 - 2
Sporting CP
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Estrela won 0, drew 0 and lost 5.
Current Streaks
Estrela — unbeaten run (home)1
Estrela — scoring streak (home)0
Sporting CP — winless run (away)0
Sporting CP — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Estrela Win (1)20%
Draw (X)23%
Sporting CP Win (2)57%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
59%
+0.5
100%
35%
+1.5
65%
24%
+2.5
35%
6%
+3.5
24%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
41%
-0.5
0%
65%
-1.5
35%
76%
-2.5
65%
94%
-3.5
76%
100%
-4.5
100%
Estrela vs Sporting CP — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Estrela — scored (home)1.24
Estrela — conceded (home)1.41
Sporting CP — scored (away)2.24
Sporting CP — conceded (away)0.76
Model expected combined goals2.82
Both Teams To Score
Yes53%
No47%
Rate per Team
Estrela — BTTS matches (home)41%
Sporting CP — BTTS matches (away)71%
Combined (simple average)56%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Estrela (home)
Corners for3.6
Corners against5.5
Sporting CP (away)
Corners for7.5
Corners against3.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Estrela
7
6
5
13
8
Sporting CP
9
10
8
11
7
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.594%
Under 2.56%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.6
Yellow Cards per Team
Estrela (home)
For2.6
Sporting CP (away)
For2.7
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.569%
Under 19.531%
Over 22.555%
Under 22.545%
Over 25.542%
Under 25.558%
Expected total shots24.61
Estrela
Shots Over 9.560%
Shots Over 11.543%
Shots Over 13.529%
Expected shots11.20
On Target Over 3.545%
On Target Over 4.528%
On Target Over 5.517%
Expected on target3.50
Sporting CP
Shots Over 9.574%
Shots Over 11.560%
Shots Over 13.545%
Expected shots13.40
On Target Over 3.566%
On Target Over 4.549%
On Target Over 5.535%
Expected on target4.76
Shots per Game
Estrela — total shots (home)13.1
Sporting CP — total shots (away)16.1
Shots on Target
Estrela — on target (home)3.9
Sporting CP — on target (away)6.1
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Estrela
Inside the box5.97
Outside the box4.88
Sporting CP
Inside the box11.82
Outside the box5.74
Player Shots Estrela
Kikas
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target24%
Jovane Cabral
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target19%
S. Lopes Cabral
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target7%
Rodrigo Pinho
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target17%
A. Marcus
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target0%
Player Shots Sporting CP
L. Suárez
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target91%
+1.5 On Target50%
Pote
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
C. Harder
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target25%
Geny Catamo
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target24%
Trincão
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target15%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Estrela xG (home)1.2
Sporting CP xG (away)2.13
Average Possession
46.88%
Possession
61.85%
Team Comparison Estrela vs Sporting CP
79.41%
Pass accuracy
87.56%
354.35
Passes per match
544.06
0.08
Goals prevented
-0.21
14.44
Fouls committed
12.24
2.91
Goalkeeper saves
2.29
1.82
Offsides
1.62
15.65
Tackles per match
15.76
League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Estrela vs Sporting CP prediction analysis
Review Estrela vs Sporting CP with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primeira Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights