Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven

Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Eredivisie 2026-08-15 18:00
Excelsior
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
59%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
PSV Eindhoven
Away

Prediction Summary

1
23%
X
22%
2
55%
Over 2.5
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Excelsior (Home)

Goals scored / match1.18
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate53%

PSV Eindhoven (Away)

Goals scored / match2.53
Goals conceded / match1.12
Over 2.5 rate35%
BTTS rate71%

Team Form last 5 matches

Excelsior
WDWWD
PSV Eindhoven
WWDWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

76% +0.5 100%
24% +1.5 82%
6% +2.5 35%
6% +3.5 24%
6% +4.5 12%
53% BTTS 71%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 59%. Model confidence is Medium.

Excelsior averages 1.18 goals scored at home, while PSV Eindhoven averages 2.53 goals scored away.

Model Strength
59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
23%
Draw
22%
Away Win
55%
Over 2.5
59%
BTTS Yes
58%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Excelsior(A) 1 - 5 PSV Eindhoven Away
Sep 2025 Excelsior 1 - 2 PSV Eindhoven Away
Jan 2025 Excelsior(A) 4 - 5 PSV Eindhoven Away
Apr 2024 Excelsior 0 - 2 PSV Eindhoven Away
Jan 2024 Excelsior(A) 1 - 3 PSV Eindhoven Away

In the last 5 meetings, Excelsior won 0, drew 0 and lost 5.

Current Streaks

Excelsior — unbeaten run (home)2
Excelsior — scoring streak (home)2
PSV Eindhoven — winless run (away)0
PSV Eindhoven — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Excelsior Win (1)23%
Draw (X)22%
PSV Eindhoven Win (2)55%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

76% +0.5 100%
24% +1.5 82%
6% +2.5 35%
6% +3.5 24%
6% +4.5 12%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

24% -0.5 0%
76% -1.5 18%
94% -2.5 65%
94% -3.5 76%
94% -4.5 88%

Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Excelsior — scored (home)1.18
Excelsior — conceded (home)1.29
PSV Eindhoven — scored (away)2.53
PSV Eindhoven — conceded (away)1.12
Model expected combined goals3.06

Both Teams To Score

Yes58%
No42%

Rate per Team

Excelsior — BTTS matches (home)53%
PSV Eindhoven — BTTS matches (away)71%
Combined (simple average)62%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.564%
Under 8.536%
Over 9.554%
Under 9.546%
Over 10.545%
Under 10.555%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Excelsior (home)

Corners for4.2
Corners against4.2

PSV Eindhoven (away)

Corners for6.7
Corners against4.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Excelsior
7 5 13 5 7
PSV Eindhoven
7 8 10 12 20

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.588%
Under 0.512%
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)2.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Excelsior (home)

For1.5

PSV Eindhoven (away)

For2.1

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.578%
Under 19.522%
Over 22.566%
Under 22.534%
Over 25.554%
Under 25.546%
Expected total shots27.62

Excelsior

Shots Over 9.571%
Shots Over 11.556%
Shots Over 13.541%
Expected shots12.89
On Target Over 3.561%
On Target Over 4.545%
On Target Over 5.531%
Expected on target4.48

PSV Eindhoven

Shots Over 9.580%
Shots Over 11.568%
Shots Over 13.554%
Expected shots14.73
On Target Over 3.574%
On Target Over 4.560%
On Target Over 5.546%
Expected on target5.57

Shots per Game

Excelsior — total shots (home)12.9
PSV Eindhoven — total shots (away)16.0

Shots on Target

Excelsior — on target (home)4.4
PSV Eindhoven — on target (away)7.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Excelsior

Inside the box8.24
Outside the box4.24

PSV Eindhoven

Inside the box12.15
Outside the box5.41

Player Shots Excelsior

N. Naujoks
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target19%
D. Sanches Fernandes
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target12%
G. de Regt
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target6%
I. Yegoian
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%
M. Jonathans
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots PSV Eindhoven

I. Saibari
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target48%
R. Pepi
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target77%
+1.5 On Target35%
R. van Bommel
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target83%
+1.5 On Target17%
G. Til
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target21%
P. Wanner
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target14%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Excelsior xG (home)1.34
PSV Eindhoven xG (away)2.18

Average Possession

47.56% Possession 60.85%

Team Comparison Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven

77.47% Pass accuracy 86.21%
404.35 Passes per match 549.82
0.06 Goals prevented -0.46
12.29 Fouls committed 10.26
3.82 Goalkeeper saves 2.74
1.03 Offsides 1.65
14.41 Tackles per match 16.79

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven prediction and preview

Preview Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.

1X2 Over/Under 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Eredivisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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