Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian

Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premiership 2026-08-22 14:00
Falkirk
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
61%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Heart Of Midlothian
Away

Prediction Summary

1
34%
X
24%
2
43%
Over 2.5
59%
BTTS Yes
61%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Falkirk (Home)

Goals scored / match1.65
Goals conceded / match1.7
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate70%

Heart Of Midlothian (Away)

Goals scored / match1.58
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Falkirk
LLLWL
Heart Of Midlothian
LWDWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

85% +0.5 79%
45% +1.5 63%
20% +2.5 16%
10% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%
70% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 61%. Model confidence is Medium.

Falkirk averages 1.65 goals scored at home, while Heart Of Midlothian averages 1.58 goals scored away.

Model Strength
61%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
34%
Draw
24%
Away Win
43%
Over 2.5
59%
BTTS Yes
61%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Falkirk(A) 0 - 3 Heart Of Midlothian Away
Feb 2026 Falkirk(A) 0 - 1 Heart Of Midlothian Away
Jan 2026 Falkirk(A) 1 - 1 Heart Of Midlothian Draw
Dec 2025 Falkirk 0 - 2 Heart Of Midlothian Away
Sep 2025 Falkirk(A) 0 - 3 Heart Of Midlothian Away

In the last 5 meetings, Falkirk won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

Falkirk — unbeaten run (home)0
Falkirk — scoring streak (home)9
Heart Of Midlothian — winless run (away)2
Heart Of Midlothian — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Falkirk Win (1)34%
Draw (X)24%
Heart Of Midlothian Win (2)43%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

85% +0.5 79%
45% +1.5 63%
20% +2.5 16%
10% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

15% -0.5 21%
55% -1.5 37%
80% -2.5 84%
90% -3.5 100%
95% -4.5 100%

Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Falkirk — scored (home)1.65
Falkirk — conceded (home)1.7
Heart Of Midlothian — scored (away)1.58
Heart Of Midlothian — conceded (away)1.21
Model expected combined goals3.07

Both Teams To Score

Yes61%
No39%

Rate per Team

Falkirk — BTTS matches (home)70%
Heart Of Midlothian — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)61.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.552%
Under 9.548%
Over 10.541%
Under 10.559%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Falkirk (home)

Corners for4.5
Corners against4.0

Heart Of Midlothian (away)

Corners for5.7
Corners against4.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Falkirk
16 7 11 10 11
Heart Of Midlothian
11 8 8 10 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Falkirk (home)

For1.8

Heart Of Midlothian (away)

For2.2

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.570%
Under 19.530%
Over 22.557%
Under 22.543%
Over 25.543%
Under 25.557%
Expected total shots24.91

Falkirk

Shots Over 9.570%
Shots Over 11.554%
Shots Over 13.539%
Expected shots12.58
On Target Over 3.557%
On Target Over 4.540%
On Target Over 5.526%
Expected on target4.20

Heart Of Midlothian

Shots Over 9.568%
Shots Over 11.552%
Shots Over 13.537%
Expected shots12.34
On Target Over 3.557%
On Target Over 4.541%
On Target Over 5.527%
Expected on target4.21

Shots per Game

Falkirk — total shots (home)12.5
Heart Of Midlothian — total shots (away)13.9

Shots on Target

Falkirk — on target (home)4.1
Heart Of Midlothian — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Falkirk

Inside the box7.42
Outside the box4.37

Heart Of Midlothian

Inside the box9.74
Outside the box4.58

Player Shots Falkirk

B. Stewart
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target18%
R. MacIver
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target17%
C. Miller
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target16%
Brian Graham
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target5%
B. Broggio
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Heart Of Midlothian

L. Shankland
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target48%
Cláudio Braga
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target29%
A. Kyziridis
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target13%
P. Kabore
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target12%
Ageu
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Falkirk xG (home)1.37
Heart Of Midlothian xG (away)1.46

Average Possession

50.79% Possession 53.39%

Team Comparison Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian

76.66% Pass accuracy 75.55%
400.39 Passes per match 414.24
-0.43 Goals prevented -0.46
12.05 Fouls committed 10.92
3.03 Goalkeeper saves 2
2.14 Offsides 1.31
18.11 Tackles per match 16.87

League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian prediction analysis

Review Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premiership.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premiership
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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