Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Falkirk vs ST Mirren

Falkirk vs ST Mirren prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premiership 2026-08-01 14:00
Falkirk
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
60%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
ST Mirren
Away

Prediction Summary

1
45%
X
24%
2
31%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Falkirk (Home)

Goals scored / match1.65
Goals conceded / match1.7
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate70%

ST Mirren (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.7
Over 2.5 rate10%
BTTS rate60%

Team Form last 5 matches

Falkirk
LLLWL
ST Mirren
WDDWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

85% +0.5 65%
45% +1.5 25%
20% +2.5 10%
10% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%
70% BTTS 60%

Model Insight

The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 60%. Model confidence is Medium.

Falkirk averages 1.65 goals scored at home, while ST Mirren averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
45%
Draw
24%
Away Win
31%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
60%

Head-to-Head last 3

Mar 2026 Falkirk 1 - 2 ST Mirren Away
Jan 2026 Falkirk(A) 2 - 0 ST Mirren Home
Sep 2025 Falkirk 1 - 2 ST Mirren Away

In the last 3 meetings, Falkirk won 1, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Falkirk — unbeaten run (home)0
Falkirk — scoring streak (home)9
ST Mirren — winless run (away)1
ST Mirren — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Falkirk Win (1)45%
Draw (X)24%
ST Mirren Win (2)31%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

85% +0.5 65%
45% +1.5 25%
20% +2.5 10%
10% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

15% -0.5 35%
55% -1.5 75%
80% -2.5 90%
90% -3.5 100%
95% -4.5 100%

Falkirk vs ST Mirren — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Falkirk — scored (home)1.65
Falkirk — conceded (home)1.7
ST Mirren — scored (away)1
ST Mirren — conceded (away)1.7
Model expected combined goals3.03

Both Teams To Score

Yes60%
No40%

Rate per Team

Falkirk — BTTS matches (home)70%
ST Mirren — BTTS matches (away)60%
Combined (simple average)65%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.552%
Under 9.548%
Over 10.541%
Under 10.559%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Falkirk (home)

Corners for4.5
Corners against4.0

ST Mirren (away)

Corners for5.5
Corners against6.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Falkirk
16 7 11 10 11
ST Mirren
5 7 12 0 0

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.573%
Under 2.527%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Falkirk (home)

For1.8

ST Mirren (away)

For1.9

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.569%
Under 19.531%
Over 22.555%
Under 22.545%
Over 25.542%
Under 25.558%
Expected total shots24.50

Falkirk

Shots Over 9.572%
Shots Over 11.557%
Shots Over 13.542%
Expected shots13.01
On Target Over 3.562%
On Target Over 4.546%
On Target Over 5.531%
Expected on target4.54

ST Mirren

Shots Over 9.562%
Shots Over 11.546%
Shots Over 13.531%
Expected shots11.48
On Target Over 3.550%
On Target Over 4.534%
On Target Over 5.521%
Expected on target3.80

Shots per Game

Falkirk — total shots (home)12.5
ST Mirren — total shots (away)11.3

Shots on Target

Falkirk — on target (home)4.1
ST Mirren — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Falkirk

Inside the box7.42
Outside the box4.37

ST Mirren

Inside the box7.97
Outside the box3.89

Player Shots Falkirk

B. Stewart
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target18%
R. MacIver
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target17%
C. Miller
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target16%
Brian Graham
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target5%
B. Broggio
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots ST Mirren

L. Douglas
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
M. Mandron
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target9%
J. Ayunga
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target9%
D. Nlundulu
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target7%
K. Phillips
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Falkirk xG (home)1.37
ST Mirren xG (away)0.98

Average Possession

50.79% Possession 46.29%

Team Comparison Falkirk vs ST Mirren

76.66% Pass accuracy 74.18%
400.39 Passes per match 373.26
-0.43 Goals prevented 0.1
12.05 Fouls committed 12.74
3.03 Goalkeeper saves 2.84
2.14 Offsides 2.24
18.11 Tackles per match 14.55

League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Falkirk vs ST Mirren prediction analysis

Review Falkirk vs ST Mirren with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premiership.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premiership
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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