What markets are included in the Farense vs Arouca prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Farense vs Arouca prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Farense vs Arouca

Farense vs Arouca prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2024-09-22 17:00

Farense

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

44%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Arouca

Away

Prediction Summary

34%

27%

38%

Under 2.5

56%

BTTS · No edge

50%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Farense (Home)

Goals scored / match0.59

Goals conceded / match1.41

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate35%

Arouca (Away)

Goals scored / match1.12

Goals conceded / match1.76

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate65%

Team Form last 5 matches

Farense

LWWLL

Arouca

WDDLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

47% +0.5 76%

12% +1.5 29%

0% +2.5 6%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

35% BTTS 65%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.

Farense averages 0.59 goals scored at home, while Arouca averages 1.12 goals scored away.

Model Strength

56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

34%

Draw

27%

Away Win

38%

Over 2.5

44%

BTTS Yes

50%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2025 Farense(A) 2 - 2 Arouca Draw

Nov 2024 Farense(A) 2 - 1 Arouca Home

Sep 2024 Farense 0 - 1 Arouca Away

Mar 2024 Farense(A) 1 - 2 Arouca Away

Nov 2023 Farense 2 - 0 Arouca Home

In the last 5 meetings, Farense won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Farense — unbeaten run (home)0

Farense — scoring streak (home)2

Arouca — winless run (away)4

Arouca — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Farense Win (1)34%

Draw (X)27%

Arouca Win (2)38%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

47% +0.5 76%

12% +1.5 29%

0% +2.5 6%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

53% -0.5 24%

88% -1.5 71%

100% -2.5 94%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Farense vs Arouca — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Farense — scored (home)0.59

Farense — conceded (home)1.41

Arouca — scored (away)1.12

Arouca — conceded (away)1.76

Model expected combined goals2.44

Both Teams To Score

Yes50%

No50%

Rate per Team

Farense — BTTS matches (home)35%

Arouca — BTTS matches (away)65%

Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.597%

Under 5.53%

Over 6.585%

Under 6.515%

Over 7.579%

Under 7.521%

Over 8.565%

Under 8.535%

Over 9.550%

Under 9.550%

Over 10.547%

Under 10.553%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Farense (home)

Corners for6.2

Corners against4.7

Arouca (away)

Corners for5.2

Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Farense

8 5 14 19 9

Arouca

8 8 5 5 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.597%

Under 1.53%

Over 2.594%

Under 2.56%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Farense (home)

For2.7

Arouca (away)

For2.9

Shots per Game

Farense — total shots (home)12.9

Arouca — total shots (away)11.8

Shots on Target

Farense — on target (home)3.4

Arouca — on target (away)4.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Farense

Inside the box6.65

Outside the box4.68

Arouca

Inside the box6.5

Outside the box5.21

Player Shots Farense

Y. Njie

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target21%

+1.5 On Target7%

M. Belloumi

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target100%

+1.5 On Target67%

Rony Lopes

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target21%

Darío Poveda

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target5%

Tómané

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Arouca

V. Morozov

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target18%

D. Nandín

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Ivo Rodrigues

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target9%

Jason

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target16%

Pablo Gozálbez

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target12%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Farense xG (home)0.9

Arouca xG (away)1.15

Average Possession

40.79% Possession 52.59%

Team Comparison Farense vs Arouca

71.71% Pass accuracy 80.94%

293.85 Passes per match 421.68

0.28 Goals prevented -0.03

15.21 Fouls committed 14.65

3.09 Goalkeeper saves 2.82

1.97 Offsides 1.88

17.56 Tackles per match 16.32

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Farense vs Arouca prediction analysis

Review Farense vs Arouca with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights