Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: FC Basel 1893 vs Aston Villa

FC Basel 1893 vs Aston Villa prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Europa League 2025-12-11 20:00
FC Basel 1893
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
42%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Aston Villa
Away

Prediction Summary

1
30%
X
28%
2
42%
Under 2.5
58%
BTTS No
52%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

FC Basel 1893 (Home)

Goals scored / match1.5
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate25%
BTTS rate50%

Aston Villa (Away)

Goals scored / match1.63
Goals conceded / match0.63
Over 2.5 rate25%
BTTS rate38%

Team Form last 5 matches

FC Basel 1893
LLLLW
Aston Villa
WWLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

75% +0.5 88%
50% +1.5 50%
25% +2.5 25%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
50% BTTS 38%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 42%. Model confidence is Medium.

FC Basel 1893 averages 1.5 goals scored at home, while Aston Villa averages 1.63 goals scored away.

Model Strength
58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
30%
Draw
28%
Away Win
42%
Over 2.5
42%
BTTS Yes
48%

Head-to-Head last 1

Dec 2025 FC Basel 1893 1 - 2 Aston Villa Away

In the last 1 meetings, FC Basel 1893 won 0, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

FC Basel 1893 — unbeaten run (home)0
FC Basel 1893 — scoring streak (home)0
Aston Villa — winless run (away)0
Aston Villa — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5

1X2 Probability model

FC Basel 1893 Win (1)30%
Draw (X)28%
Aston Villa Win (2)42%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

75% +0.5 88%
50% +1.5 50%
25% +2.5 25%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

25% -0.5 12%
50% -1.5 50%
75% -2.5 75%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

FC Basel 1893 vs Aston Villa — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

FC Basel 1893 — scored (home)1.5
FC Basel 1893 — conceded (home)1
Aston Villa — scored (away)1.63
Aston Villa — conceded (away)0.63
Model expected combined goals2.38

Both Teams To Score

Yes48%
No52%

Rate per Team

FC Basel 1893 — BTTS matches (home)50%
Aston Villa — BTTS matches (away)38%
Combined (simple average)44%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.594%
Under 5.56%
Over 6.575%
Under 6.525%
Over 7.569%
Under 7.531%
Over 8.569%
Under 8.531%
Over 9.557%
Under 9.543%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

FC Basel 1893 (home)

Corners for4.3
Corners against6.3

Aston Villa (away)

Corners for5.0
Corners against3.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

FC Basel 1893
13 8 6 10 13
Aston Villa
7 6 12 9 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.3

Yellow Cards per Team

FC Basel 1893 (home)

For2.3

Aston Villa (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

FC Basel 1893 — total shots (home)15.3
Aston Villa — total shots (away)10.9

Shots on Target

FC Basel 1893 — on target (home)5.0
Aston Villa — on target (away)4.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

FC Basel 1893

Inside the box8
Outside the box5.5

Aston Villa

Inside the box8.6
Outside the box3.73

Player Shots FC Basel 1893

J. Agbonifo
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target40%
X. Shaqiri
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%
L. Leroy
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target13%
J. Adjetey
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
P. Otele
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Aston Villa

D. Malen
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target33%
O. Watkins
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Rogers
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target20%
E. Guessand
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
J. McGinn
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Basel 1893 xG (home)1.29
Aston Villa xG (away)1.66

Average Possession

46.63% Possession 53.47%

Team Comparison FC Basel 1893 vs Aston Villa

80.5% Pass accuracy 85.27%
417.75 Passes per match 452.73
-0.16 Goals prevented 0.14
13.25 Fouls committed 11.47
4.25 Goalkeeper saves 3.73
2 Offsides 1.13
18.88 Tackles per match 13.6

League average xG this season is 1.39 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

FC Basel 1893 vs Aston Villa prediction analysis

Review FC Basel 1893 vs Aston Villa with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Europa League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Europa League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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