Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes

FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Major League Soccer 2026-08-01 23:30
FC Cincinnati
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
59%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
San Jose Earthquakes
Away

Prediction Summary

1
47%
X
24%
2
29%
Over 2.5
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

FC Cincinnati (Home)

Goals scored / match1.62
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate19%
BTTS rate52%

San Jose Earthquakes (Away)

Goals scored / match1.35
Goals conceded / match1.82
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate76%

Team Form last 5 matches

FC Cincinnati
LWLWL
San Jose Earthquakes
DLWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

81% +0.5 94%
57% +1.5 29%
19% +2.5 6%
5% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%
52% BTTS 76%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 59%. Model confidence is Medium.

FC Cincinnati averages 1.62 goals scored at home, while San Jose Earthquakes averages 1.35 goals scored away.

Model Strength
60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
47%
Draw
24%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
59%
BTTS Yes
60%

Head-to-Head last 3

Jun 2024 FC Cincinnati(A) 4 - 2 San Jose Earthquakes Home
Sep 2022 FC Cincinnati 6 - 0 San Jose Earthquakes Home
May 2019 FC Cincinnati(A) 0 - 1 San Jose Earthquakes Away

In the last 3 meetings, FC Cincinnati won 2, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

FC Cincinnati — unbeaten run (home)1
FC Cincinnati — scoring streak (home)1
San Jose Earthquakes — winless run (away)1
San Jose Earthquakes — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

FC Cincinnati Win (1)47%
Draw (X)24%
San Jose Earthquakes Win (2)29%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

81% +0.5 94%
57% +1.5 29%
19% +2.5 6%
5% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

19% -0.5 6%
43% -1.5 71%
81% -2.5 94%
95% -3.5 94%
100% -4.5 100%

FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

FC Cincinnati — scored (home)1.62
FC Cincinnati — conceded (home)1.29
San Jose Earthquakes — scored (away)1.35
San Jose Earthquakes — conceded (away)1.82
Model expected combined goals3.04

Both Teams To Score

Yes60%
No40%

Rate per Team

FC Cincinnati — BTTS matches (home)52%
San Jose Earthquakes — BTTS matches (away)76%
Combined (simple average)64%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.560%
Under 8.540%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

FC Cincinnati (home)

Corners for4.6
Corners against4.7

San Jose Earthquakes (away)

Corners for4.7
Corners against5.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

FC Cincinnati
11 13 6 4 8
San Jose Earthquakes
12 12 16 5 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.3

Yellow Cards per Team

FC Cincinnati (home)

For2.2

San Jose Earthquakes (away)

For2.5

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.579%
Under 19.521%
Over 22.565%
Under 22.535%
Over 25.550%
Under 25.550%
Expected total shots26.26

FC Cincinnati

Shots Over 9.583%
Shots Over 11.570%
Shots Over 13.554%
Expected shots14.52
On Target Over 3.577%
On Target Over 4.562%
On Target Over 5.546%
Expected on target5.49

San Jose Earthquakes

Shots Over 9.567%
Shots Over 11.549%
Shots Over 13.532%
Expected shots11.75
On Target Over 3.558%
On Target Over 4.539%
On Target Over 5.525%
Expected on target4.13

Shots per Game

FC Cincinnati — total shots (home)14.2
San Jose Earthquakes — total shots (away)13.8

Shots on Target

FC Cincinnati — on target (home)5.5
San Jose Earthquakes — on target (away)5.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

FC Cincinnati

Inside the box7.76
Outside the box5.68

San Jose Earthquakes

Inside the box10.24
Outside the box5.21

Player Shots FC Cincinnati

Evander
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target49%
Brenner
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target40%
G. Valenzuela
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target25%
K. Denkey
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target38%
Y. Kubo
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target24%

Player Shots San Jose Earthquakes

D. Romney
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target3%
+1.5 On Target3%
H. López
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target40%
Josef Martínez
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target30%
C. Arango
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target80%
+1.5 On Target37%
Beau Leroux
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target15%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Cincinnati xG (home)1.24
San Jose Earthquakes xG (away)1.89

Average Possession

48.29% Possession 50.68%

Team Comparison FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes

83.53% Pass accuracy 80.89%
449.63 Passes per match 427.74
0.19 Goals prevented -0.11
10.21 Fouls committed 12.62
3.11 Goalkeeper saves 3.32
1.68 Offsides 1.88
15.33 Tackles per match 15.85

League average xG this season is 1.48 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction analysis

Review FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Major League Soccer.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Major League Soccer
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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