Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen

FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Super League 2026-08-23 14:30
FC Lugano
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
63%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
FC ST. Gallen
Away

Prediction Summary

1
39%
X
24%
2
38%
Over 2.5
61%
BTTS Yes
63%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

FC Lugano (Home)

Goals scored / match1.89
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate68%

FC ST. Gallen (Away)

Goals scored / match2.05
Goals conceded / match1.26
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate89%

Team Form last 5 matches

FC Lugano
WDLWW
FC ST. Gallen
DWWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 95%
47% +1.5 74%
26% +2.5 21%
16% +3.5 11%
0% +4.5 5%
68% BTTS 89%

Model Insight

The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 63%. Model confidence is Medium.

FC Lugano averages 1.89 goals scored at home, while FC ST. Gallen averages 2.05 goals scored away.

Model Strength
63%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
39%
Draw
24%
Away Win
38%
Over 2.5
61%
BTTS Yes
63%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 FC Lugano 1 - 2 FC ST. Gallen Away
Mar 2026 FC Lugano(A) 1 - 1 FC ST. Gallen Draw
Nov 2025 FC Lugano 1 - 3 FC ST. Gallen Away
Sep 2025 FC Lugano(A) 0 - 1 FC ST. Gallen Away
Apr 2025 FC Lugano 1 - 1 FC ST. Gallen Draw

In the last 5 meetings, FC Lugano won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

FC Lugano — unbeaten run (home)1
FC Lugano — scoring streak (home)19
FC ST. Gallen — winless run (away)0
FC ST. Gallen — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

FC Lugano Win (1)39%
Draw (X)24%
FC ST. Gallen Win (2)38%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 95%
47% +1.5 74%
26% +2.5 21%
16% +3.5 11%
0% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 5%
53% -1.5 26%
74% -2.5 79%
84% -3.5 89%
100% -4.5 95%

FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

FC Lugano — scored (home)1.89
FC Lugano — conceded (home)1.05
FC ST. Gallen — scored (away)2.05
FC ST. Gallen — conceded (away)1.26
Model expected combined goals3.13

Both Teams To Score

Yes63%
No37%

Rate per Team

FC Lugano — BTTS matches (home)68%
FC ST. Gallen — BTTS matches (away)89%
Combined (simple average)78.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.566%
Under 8.534%
Over 9.555%
Under 9.545%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

FC Lugano (home)

Corners for3.3
Corners against5.6

FC ST. Gallen (away)

Corners for5.3
Corners against5.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

FC Lugano
12 9 8 8 10
FC ST. Gallen
12 12 8 18 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.598%
Under 2.52%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.6

Yellow Cards per Team

FC Lugano (home)

For2.1

FC ST. Gallen (away)

For3.5

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.585%
Under 19.515%
Over 22.573%
Under 22.527%
Over 25.559%
Under 25.541%
Expected total shots27.98

FC Lugano

Shots Over 9.581%
Shots Over 11.566%
Shots Over 13.550%
Expected shots13.85
On Target Over 3.571%
On Target Over 4.555%
On Target Over 5.540%
Expected on target5.10

FC ST. Gallen

Shots Over 9.583%
Shots Over 11.568%
Shots Over 13.552%
Expected shots14.13
On Target Over 3.568%
On Target Over 4.551%
On Target Over 5.536%
Expected on target4.84

Shots per Game

FC Lugano — total shots (home)11.8
FC ST. Gallen — total shots (away)15.1

Shots on Target

FC Lugano — on target (home)4.9
FC ST. Gallen — on target (away)5.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

FC Lugano

Inside the box8.74
Outside the box4.47

FC ST. Gallen

Inside the box11.5
Outside the box4.45

Player Shots FC Lugano

K. Behrens
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target21%
Y. Cimignani
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%
H. Delcroix
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target7%
R. Steffen
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target7%
Daniel Dos Santos
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots FC ST. Gallen

W. Geubbels
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target100%
A. Vogt
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target31%
C. Boukhalfa
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target31%
A. Balde
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target19%
C. Witzig
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Lugano xG (home)1.53
FC ST. Gallen xG (away)1.98

Average Possession

56.39% Possession 44.76%

Team Comparison FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen

84.71% Pass accuracy 68.97%
476.45 Passes per match 308.05
0.14 Goals prevented 0.31
12.13 Fouls committed 15.92
3.61 Goalkeeper saves 3.39
2.17 Offsides 1.95
14.39 Tackles per match 16.5

League average xG this season is 1.65 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen prediction analysis

Review FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Super League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Super League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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