Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893

FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Super League 2025-12-17 19:30
FC Luzern
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
67%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
FC Basel 1893
Away

Prediction Summary

1
41%
X
22%
2
36%
Over 2.5
67%
BTTS Yes
67%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

FC Luzern (Home)

Goals scored / match2.21
Goals conceded / match2
Over 2.5 rate32%
BTTS rate84%

FC Basel 1893 (Away)

Goals scored / match1.37
Goals conceded / match1.95
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

FC Luzern
WWDWW
FC Basel 1893
LLLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 74%
58% +1.5 42%
32% +2.5 16%
21% +3.5 5%
5% +4.5 0%
84% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 67%. Model confidence is Medium.

FC Luzern averages 2.21 goals scored at home, while FC Basel 1893 averages 1.37 goals scored away.

Model Strength
67%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
41%
Draw
22%
Away Win
36%
Over 2.5
67%
BTTS Yes
67%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 FC Luzern 4 - 2 FC Basel 1893 Home
Dec 2025 FC Luzern 1 - 2 FC Basel 1893 Away
Sep 2025 FC Luzern(A) 2 - 1 FC Basel 1893 Home
May 2025 FC Luzern(A) 0 - 4 FC Basel 1893 Away
Mar 2025 FC Luzern 1 - 1 FC Basel 1893 Draw

In the last 5 meetings, FC Luzern won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

FC Luzern — unbeaten run (home)4
FC Luzern — scoring streak (home)19
FC Basel 1893 — winless run (away)3
FC Basel 1893 — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

FC Luzern Win (1)41%
Draw (X)22%
FC Basel 1893 Win (2)36%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 74%
58% +1.5 42%
32% +2.5 16%
21% +3.5 5%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 26%
42% -1.5 58%
68% -2.5 84%
79% -3.5 95%
95% -4.5 100%

FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

FC Luzern — scored (home)2.21
FC Luzern — conceded (home)2
FC Basel 1893 — scored (away)1.37
FC Basel 1893 — conceded (away)1.95
Model expected combined goals3.44

Both Teams To Score

Yes67%
No33%

Rate per Team

FC Luzern — BTTS matches (home)84%
FC Basel 1893 — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)71%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.595%
Under 6.55%
Over 7.587%
Under 7.513%
Over 8.571%
Under 8.529%
Over 9.566%
Under 9.534%
Over 10.558%
Under 10.542%
Expected total corners (blended average)11.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

FC Luzern (home)

Corners for6.3
Corners against4.8

FC Basel 1893 (away)

Corners for5.4
Corners against5.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

FC Luzern
11 11 8 15 7
FC Basel 1893
9 7 11 18 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6

Yellow Cards per Team

FC Luzern (home)

For1.8

FC Basel 1893 (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

FC Luzern — total shots (home)15.0
FC Basel 1893 — total shots (away)14.3

Shots on Target

FC Luzern — on target (home)4.7
FC Basel 1893 — on target (away)5.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

FC Luzern

Inside the box9.89
Outside the box4.79

FC Basel 1893

Inside the box10.18
Outside the box5

Player Shots FC Luzern

O. Kabwit
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target35%
M. Di Giusto
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target29%
O. tshikomb
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target10%
J. von Moos
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target13%
K. Spadanuda
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots FC Basel 1893

P. Otele
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target40%
Kevin Carlos
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target25%
J. Duranville
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
B. Traoré
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target7%
X. Shaqiri
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target12%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Luzern xG (home)1.73
FC Basel 1893 xG (away)1.93

Average Possession

50.29% Possession 55.08%

Team Comparison FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893

78.55% Pass accuracy 82.5%
392.26 Passes per match 449.82
-0.09 Goals prevented -0.15
12.42 Fouls committed 10.34
2.68 Goalkeeper saves 3.68
1.81 Offsides 1.94
18.08 Tackles per match 16.82

League average xG this season is 1.65 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 prediction analysis

Review FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Super League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Super League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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