Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: FC Luzern vs FC Thun

FC Luzern vs FC Thun prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Super League 2026-07-25 18:30
FC Luzern
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
70%
Confidence
High
Score
1-1
FC Thun
Away

Prediction Summary

1
35%
X
22%
2
43%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Yes
70%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

FC Luzern (Home)

Goals scored / match2.15
Goals conceded / match2.05
Over 2.5 rate30%
BTTS rate85%

FC Thun (Away)

Goals scored / match1.9
Goals conceded / match1.2
Over 2.5 rate30%
BTTS rate70%

Team Form last 5 matches

FC Luzern
LWWDW
FC Thun
WDLLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 90%
55% +1.5 60%
30% +2.5 30%
20% +3.5 10%
5% +4.5 0%
85% BTTS 70%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 70%. Model confidence is High.

FC Luzern averages 2.15 goals scored at home, while FC Thun averages 1.9 goals scored away.

Model Strength
70%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
35%
Draw
22%
Away Win
43%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Yes
70%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jul 2026 FC Luzern 1 - 3 FC Thun Away
Feb 2026 FC Luzern(A) 1 - 2 FC Thun Away
Dec 2025 FC Luzern(A) 1 - 4 FC Thun Away
Aug 2025 FC Luzern 1 - 2 FC Thun Away
Sep 2023 FC Luzern(A) 3 - 1 FC Thun Home

In the last 5 meetings, FC Luzern won 1, drew 0 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

FC Luzern — unbeaten run (home)0
FC Luzern — scoring streak (home)20
FC Thun — winless run (away)0
FC Thun — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

FC Luzern Win (1)35%
Draw (X)22%
FC Thun Win (2)43%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 90%
55% +1.5 60%
30% +2.5 30%
20% +3.5 10%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 10%
45% -1.5 40%
70% -2.5 70%
80% -3.5 90%
95% -4.5 100%

FC Luzern vs FC Thun — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

FC Luzern — scored (home)2.15
FC Luzern — conceded (home)2.05
FC Thun — scored (away)1.9
FC Thun — conceded (away)1.2
Model expected combined goals3.63

Both Teams To Score

Yes70%
No30%

Rate per Team

FC Luzern — BTTS matches (home)85%
FC Thun — BTTS matches (away)70%
Combined (simple average)77.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.566%
Under 8.534%
Over 9.555%
Under 9.545%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

FC Luzern (home)

Corners for6.3
Corners against4.8

FC Thun (away)

Corners for5.2
Corners against4.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

FC Luzern
11 8 15 7 13
FC Thun
7 12 5 12 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.588%
Under 2.512%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7

Yellow Cards per Team

FC Luzern (home)

For1.8

FC Thun (away)

For2.5

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.589%
Under 19.511%
Over 22.579%
Under 22.521%
Over 25.566%
Under 25.534%
Expected total shots29.45

FC Luzern

Shots Over 9.586%
Shots Over 11.573%
Shots Over 13.557%
Expected shots14.82
On Target Over 3.569%
On Target Over 4.552%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.91

FC Thun

Shots Over 9.585%
Shots Over 11.572%
Shots Over 13.556%
Expected shots14.63
On Target Over 3.564%
On Target Over 4.547%
On Target Over 5.532%
Expected on target4.58

Shots per Game

FC Luzern — total shots (home)15.0
FC Thun — total shots (away)16.9

Shots on Target

FC Luzern — on target (home)4.7
FC Thun — on target (away)5.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

FC Luzern

Inside the box9.89
Outside the box4.79

FC Thun

Inside the box10.82
Outside the box6.21

Player Shots FC Luzern

O. Kabwit
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target35%
M. Di Giusto
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target29%
O. tshikomb
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target10%
J. von Moos
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target13%
K. Spadanuda
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots FC Thun

E. Rastoder
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target22%
L. Bertone
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target18%
C. Ibayi
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target7%
K. Imeri
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target17%
E. Meichtry
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target23%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Luzern xG (home)1.73
FC Thun xG (away)1.83

Average Possession

50.29% Possession 46.13%

Team Comparison FC Luzern vs FC Thun

78.55% Pass accuracy 70.97%
392.26 Passes per match 318.97
-0.09 Goals prevented -0.05
12.42 Fouls committed 15.66
2.68 Goalkeeper saves 3.21
1.81 Offsides 2.34
18.08 Tackles per match 17.08

League average xG this season is 1.65 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

FC Luzern vs FC Thun prediction analysis

Review FC Luzern vs FC Thun with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Super League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Super League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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