What markets are included in the FC Porto vs Alverca prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the FC Porto vs Alverca prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: FC Porto vs Alverca

FC Porto vs Alverca prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2026-08-09 17:00

FC Porto

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Home Win

Pick

FC Porto

Probability

65%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Alverca

Away

Prediction Summary

65%

22%

13%

Under 2.5

54%

BTTS No

59%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

FC Porto (Home)

Goals scored / match1.94

Goals conceded / match0.35

Over 2.5 rate35%

BTTS rate29%

Alverca (Away)

Goals scored / match1

Goals conceded / match1.71

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate59%

Team Form last 5 matches

FC Porto

WLWWW

Alverca

LDLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

94% +0.5 65%

59% +1.5 29%

35% +2.5 6%

6% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

29% BTTS 59%

Model Insight

The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 65%. Model confidence is Medium.

FC Porto averages 1.94 goals scored at home, while Alverca averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength

65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

65%

Draw

22%

Away Win

13%

Over 2.5

46%

BTTS Yes

41%

Head-to-Head last 2

May 2026 FC Porto 1 - 0 Alverca Home

Dec 2025 FC Porto(A) 3 - 0 Alverca Home

In the last 2 meetings, FC Porto won 2, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

FC Porto — unbeaten run (home)17

FC Porto — scoring streak (home)13

Alverca — winless run (away)3

Alverca — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

FC Porto Win (1)65%

Draw (X)22%

Alverca Win (2)13%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

94% +0.5 65%

59% +1.5 29%

35% +2.5 6%

6% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

6% -0.5 35%

41% -1.5 71%

65% -2.5 94%

94% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

FC Porto vs Alverca — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

FC Porto — scored (home)1.94

FC Porto — conceded (home)0.35

Alverca — scored (away)1

Alverca — conceded (away)1.71

Model expected combined goals2.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes41%

No59%

Rate per Team

FC Porto — BTTS matches (home)29%

Alverca — BTTS matches (away)59%

Combined (simple average)44%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.557%

Under 8.543%

Over 9.548%

Under 9.552%

Over 10.538%

Under 10.562%

Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

FC Porto (home)

Corners for5.6

Corners against2.9

Alverca (away)

Corners for4.1

Corners against5.8

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

FC Porto

11 6 9 10 13

Alverca

12 9 9 8 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%

Under 0.53%

Over 1.597%

Under 1.53%

Over 2.585%

Under 2.515%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.1

Yellow Cards per Team

FC Porto (home)

For2.3

Alverca (away)

For2.6

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.566%

Under 19.534%

Over 22.552%

Under 22.548%

Over 25.539%

Under 25.561%

Expected total shots23.84

FC Porto

Shots Over 9.580%

Shots Over 11.567%

Shots Over 13.553%

Expected shots14.51

On Target Over 3.569%

On Target Over 4.554%

On Target Over 5.539%

Expected on target5.05

Alverca

Shots Over 9.544%

Shots Over 11.527%

Shots Over 13.516%

Expected shots9.32

On Target Over 3.539%

On Target Over 4.524%

On Target Over 5.513%

Expected on target3.22

Shots per Game

FC Porto — total shots (home)14.5

Alverca — total shots (away)8.7

Shots on Target

FC Porto — on target (home)5.2

Alverca — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

FC Porto

Inside the box9.5

Outside the box4.91

Alverca

Inside the box6.15

Outside the box3.5

Player Shots FC Porto

Samu

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target70%

+1.5 On Target50%

William

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target21%

Borja Sainz

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target17%

O. Pietuszewski

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target13%

L. de Jong

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target20%

Player Shots Alverca

Figueiredo

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target15%

M. Milovanović

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target19%

Sandro Lima

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target3%

Tiago Rafael Fernandes Leiite

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target11%

Lincoln

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target7%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Porto xG (home)1.83

Alverca xG (away)1.2

Average Possession

55.12% Possession 44.85%

Team Comparison FC Porto vs Alverca

84.06% Pass accuracy 80%

449.71 Passes per match 364.94

-0.09 Goals prevented 0.07

13.88 Fouls committed 12.53

1.85 Goalkeeper saves 2.88

2.18 Offsides 1.22

15.03 Tackles per match 16.18

League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

FC Porto vs Alverca prediction analysis

Review FC Porto vs Alverca with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights