What markets are included in the FC Porto vs Arouca prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the FC Porto vs Arouca prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: FC Porto vs Arouca

FC Porto vs Arouca prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2024-09-29 17:00

FC Porto

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

41%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Arouca

Away

Prediction Summary

70%

21%

Under 2.5

59%

BTTS No

67%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

FC Porto (Home)

Goals scored / match2.29

Goals conceded / match0.65

Over 2.5 rate35%

BTTS rate47%

Arouca (Away)

Goals scored / match1.12

Goals conceded / match1.76

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate65%

Team Form last 5 matches

FC Porto

WWWLW

Arouca

WDDLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 76%

76% +1.5 29%

35% +2.5 6%

18% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 65%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 41%. Model confidence is Medium.

FC Porto averages 2.29 goals scored at home, while Arouca averages 1.12 goals scored away.

Model Strength

70%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

70%

Draw

21%

Away Win

Over 2.5

41%

BTTS Yes

33%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 FC Porto 3 - 1 Arouca Home

Sep 2025 FC Porto(A) 4 - 0 Arouca Home

Mar 2025 FC Porto(A) 2 - 0 Arouca Home

Sep 2024 FC Porto 4 - 0 Arouca Home

Feb 2024 FC Porto(A) 2 - 3 Arouca Away

In the last 5 meetings, FC Porto won 4, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

FC Porto — unbeaten run (home)3

FC Porto — scoring streak (home)17

Arouca — winless run (away)4

Arouca — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

FC Porto Win (1)70%

Draw (X)21%

Arouca Win (2)9%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 76%

76% +1.5 29%

35% +2.5 6%

18% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 24%

24% -1.5 71%

65% -2.5 94%

82% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

FC Porto vs Arouca — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

FC Porto — scored (home)2.29

FC Porto — conceded (home)0.65

Arouca — scored (away)1.12

Arouca — conceded (away)1.76

Model expected combined goals2.33

Both Teams To Score

Yes33%

No67%

Rate per Team

FC Porto — BTTS matches (home)47%

Arouca — BTTS matches (away)65%

Combined (simple average)56%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.594%

Under 5.56%

Over 6.585%

Under 6.515%

Over 7.579%

Under 7.521%

Over 8.568%

Under 8.532%

Over 9.553%

Under 9.547%

Over 10.544%

Under 10.556%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

FC Porto (home)

Corners for6.4

Corners against3.8

Arouca (away)

Corners for5.2

Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

FC Porto

9 16 11 4 10

Arouca

8 8 5 5 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.5100%

Under 1.50%

Over 2.591%

Under 2.59%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.2

Yellow Cards per Team

FC Porto (home)

For2.0

Arouca (away)

For2.9

Shots per Game

FC Porto — total shots (home)16.2

Arouca — total shots (away)11.8

Shots on Target

FC Porto — on target (home)6.2

Arouca — on target (away)4.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

FC Porto

Inside the box9.71

Outside the box4.56

Arouca

Inside the box6.5

Outside the box5.21

Player Shots FC Porto

Galeno

Shots on Target/Game2.1

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target44%

D. Namaso

Shots on Target/Game1.9

+0.5 On Target24%

+1.5 On Target14%

Samu

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target30%

Iván Jaime

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target22%

Pepê Aquino

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target32%

+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Arouca

V. Morozov

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target18%

D. Nandín

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Ivo Rodrigues

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target9%

Jason

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target16%

Pablo Gozálbez

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target12%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Porto xG (home)1.6

Arouca xG (away)1.15

Average Possession

62.03% Possession 52.59%

Team Comparison FC Porto vs Arouca

85.85% Pass accuracy 80.94%

514.44 Passes per match 421.68

-0.06 Goals prevented -0.03

14.24 Fouls committed 14.65

1.91 Goalkeeper saves 2.82

1.45 Offsides 1.88

13.82 Tackles per match 16.32

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

FC Porto vs Arouca prediction analysis

Review FC Porto vs Arouca with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights