Prediction Analysis: FC Porto vs Arouca
FC Porto vs Arouca prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primeira Liga
2026-08-23
15:00
FC Porto
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
FC Porto
Probability
66%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Arouca
Away
Prediction Summary
1
66%
X
21%
2
14%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS No
54%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
FC Porto (Home)
Goals scored / match1.94
Goals conceded / match0.35
Over 2.5 rate35%
BTTS rate29%
Arouca (Away)
Goals scored / match1.18
Goals conceded / match2
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
FC Porto
WLWWW
Arouca
WWDLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
94%
+0.5
71%
59%
+1.5
29%
35%
+2.5
18%
6%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
29%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 66%. Model confidence is Medium.
FC Porto averages 1.94 goals scored at home, while Arouca averages 1.18 goals scored away.
Model Strength
66%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
66%
Draw
21%
Away Win
14%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
46%
Head-to-Head last 5
Feb 2026
FC Porto
3 - 1
Arouca
Home
Sep 2025
FC Porto(A)
4 - 0
Arouca
Home
Mar 2025
FC Porto(A)
2 - 0
Arouca
Home
Sep 2024
FC Porto
4 - 0
Arouca
Home
Feb 2024
FC Porto(A)
2 - 3
Arouca
Away
In the last 5 meetings, FC Porto won 4, drew 0 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
FC Porto — unbeaten run (home)17
FC Porto — scoring streak (home)13
Arouca — winless run (away)0
Arouca — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
FC Porto Win (1)66%
Draw (X)21%
Arouca Win (2)14%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
94%
+0.5
71%
59%
+1.5
29%
35%
+2.5
18%
6%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
6%
-0.5
29%
41%
-1.5
71%
65%
-2.5
82%
94%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
FC Porto vs Arouca — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
FC Porto — scored (home)1.94
FC Porto — conceded (home)0.35
Arouca — scored (away)1.18
Arouca — conceded (away)2
Model expected combined goals2.74
Both Teams To Score
Yes46%
No54%
Rate per Team
FC Porto — BTTS matches (home)29%
Arouca — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)41%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
FC Porto (home)
Corners for5.6
Corners against2.9
Arouca (away)
Corners for3.4
Corners against4.6
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
FC Porto
11
6
9
10
13
Arouca
7
9
11
8
11
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7
Yellow Cards per Team
FC Porto (home)
For2.3
Arouca (away)
For2.3
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.567%
Under 19.533%
Over 22.554%
Under 22.546%
Over 25.540%
Under 25.560%
Expected total shots24.21
FC Porto
Shots Over 9.578%
Shots Over 11.565%
Shots Over 13.550%
Expected shots14.13
On Target Over 3.569%
On Target Over 4.553%
On Target Over 5.538%
Expected on target5.01
Arouca
Shots Over 9.551%
Shots Over 11.534%
Shots Over 13.521%
Expected shots10.07
On Target Over 3.539%
On Target Over 4.523%
On Target Over 5.513%
Expected on target3.19
Shots per Game
FC Porto — total shots (home)14.5
Arouca — total shots (away)10.6
Shots on Target
FC Porto — on target (home)5.2
Arouca — on target (away)2.9
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
FC Porto
Inside the box9.5
Outside the box4.91
Arouca
Inside the box6.15
Outside the box4.53
Player Shots FC Porto
Samu
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target50%
William
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target21%
Borja Sainz
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target17%
O. Pietuszewski
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target13%
L. de Jong
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
Player Shots Arouca
Barbero
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target13%
A. Trezza
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target16%
N. Djouahra
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target9%
Lee Hyun-Ju
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target3%
D. Nandín
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target5%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Porto xG (home)1.83
Arouca xG (away)1
Average Possession
55.12%
Possession
50.21%
Team Comparison FC Porto vs Arouca
84.06%
Pass accuracy
81.91%
449.71
Passes per match
413.24
-0.09
Goals prevented
-0.24
13.88
Fouls committed
13.82
1.85
Goalkeeper saves
2.68
2.18
Offsides
1.48
15.03
Tackles per match
14.26
League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
FC Porto vs Arouca prediction analysis
Review FC Porto vs Arouca with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primeira Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights