Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: FC Porto vs AS Roma

FC Porto vs AS Roma prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Europa League 2025-02-13 20:00
FC Porto
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
42%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
AS Roma
Away

Prediction Summary

1
52%
X
26%
2
22%
Under 2.5
58%
BTTS No
55%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

FC Porto (Home)

Goals scored / match1.6
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate40%

AS Roma (Away)

Goals scored / match0.83
Goals conceded / match1.5
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate67%

Team Form last 5 matches

FC Porto
LDWLW
AS Roma
LWWDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

80% +0.5 67%
60% +1.5 17%
20% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
40% BTTS 67%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 42%. Model confidence is Medium.

FC Porto averages 1.6 goals scored at home, while AS Roma averages 0.83 goals scored away.

Model Strength
58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
52%
Draw
26%
Away Win
22%
Over 2.5
42%
BTTS Yes
45%

Head-to-Head last 2

Feb 2025 FC Porto(A) 2 - 3 AS Roma Away
Feb 2025 FC Porto 1 - 1 AS Roma Draw

In the last 2 meetings, FC Porto won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

FC Porto — unbeaten run (home)1
FC Porto — scoring streak (home)1
AS Roma — winless run (away)6
AS Roma — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

FC Porto Win (1)52%
Draw (X)26%
AS Roma Win (2)22%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

80% +0.5 67%
60% +1.5 17%
20% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

20% -0.5 33%
40% -1.5 83%
80% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

FC Porto vs AS Roma — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

FC Porto — scored (home)1.6
FC Porto — conceded (home)1
AS Roma — scored (away)0.83
AS Roma — conceded (away)1.5
Model expected combined goals2.38

Both Teams To Score

Yes45%
No55%

Rate per Team

FC Porto — BTTS matches (home)40%
AS Roma — BTTS matches (away)67%
Combined (simple average)53.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.590%
Under 4.510%
Over 5.590%
Under 5.510%
Over 6.590%
Under 6.510%
Over 7.582%
Under 7.518%
Over 8.574%
Under 8.526%
Over 9.565%
Under 9.535%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

FC Porto (home)

Corners for4.0
Corners against6.8

AS Roma (away)

Corners for4.0
Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

FC Porto
10 4 14 10 7
AS Roma
7 10 7 4 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.590%
Under 2.510%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.3

Yellow Cards per Team

FC Porto (home)

For2.2

AS Roma (away)

For3.2

Shots per Game

FC Porto — total shots (home)14.0
AS Roma — total shots (away)13.8

Shots on Target

FC Porto — on target (home)4.4
AS Roma — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

FC Porto

Inside the box9.1
Outside the box4

AS Roma

Inside the box10.58
Outside the box4.83

Player Shots FC Porto

Samu
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target44%
Francisco Moura
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target11%
D. Namaso
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target13%
D. Gül
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
Pepê Aquino
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots AS Roma

S. El Shaarawy
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target11%
+1.5 On Target11%
Saud Abdulhamid
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%
P. Dybala
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target27%
E. Ndicka
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target18%
L. Pellegrini
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target14%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Porto xG (home)1.27
AS Roma xG (away)1.65

Average Possession

52.2% Possession 54.75%

Team Comparison FC Porto vs AS Roma

84.4% Pass accuracy 84.92%
463.5 Passes per match 527
-0.19 Goals prevented 0.05
11.9 Fouls committed 10
2.3 Goalkeeper saves 2.33
1.7 Offsides 2.92
16.9 Tackles per match 16.75

League average xG this season is 1.47 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

FC Porto vs AS Roma prediction analysis

Review FC Porto vs AS Roma with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Europa League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Europa League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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