Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: FC Porto vs Boavista

FC Porto vs Boavista prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2024-12-28 20:30
FC Porto
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
49%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Boavista
Away

Prediction Summary

1
67%
X
21%
2
12%
Under 2.5
51%
BTTS No
57%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

FC Porto (Home)

Goals scored / match2.29
Goals conceded / match0.65
Over 2.5 rate35%
BTTS rate47%

Boavista (Away)

Goals scored / match0.94
Goals conceded / match1.65
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate41%

Team Form last 5 matches

FC Porto
WWWLW
Boavista
LLWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 59%
76% +1.5 35%
35% +2.5 0%
18% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 41%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Medium.

FC Porto averages 2.29 goals scored at home, while Boavista averages 0.94 goals scored away.

Model Strength
67%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
67%
Draw
21%
Away Win
12%
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS Yes
43%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2025 FC Porto(A) 2 - 1 Boavista Home
Dec 2024 FC Porto 4 - 0 Boavista Home
May 2024 FC Porto 2 - 1 Boavista Home
Jan 2024 FC Porto(A) 1 - 1 Boavista Draw
Apr 2023 FC Porto 1 - 0 Boavista Home

In the last 5 meetings, FC Porto won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

FC Porto — unbeaten run (home)3
FC Porto — scoring streak (home)17
Boavista — winless run (away)1
Boavista — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

FC Porto Win (1)67%
Draw (X)21%
Boavista Win (2)12%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 59%
76% +1.5 35%
35% +2.5 0%
18% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 41%
24% -1.5 65%
65% -2.5 100%
82% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

FC Porto vs Boavista — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

FC Porto — scored (home)2.29
FC Porto — conceded (home)0.65
Boavista — scored (away)0.94
Boavista — conceded (away)1.65
Model expected combined goals2.63

Both Teams To Score

Yes43%
No57%

Rate per Team

FC Porto — BTTS matches (home)47%
Boavista — BTTS matches (away)41%
Combined (simple average)44%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.594%
Under 4.56%
Over 5.588%
Under 5.512%
Over 6.585%
Under 6.515%
Over 7.582%
Under 7.518%
Over 8.574%
Under 8.526%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

FC Porto (home)

Corners for6.4
Corners against3.8

Boavista (away)

Corners for3.2
Corners against6.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

FC Porto
9 16 11 4 10
Boavista
8 8 9 4 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.591%
Under 2.59%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5

Yellow Cards per Team

FC Porto (home)

For2.0

Boavista (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

FC Porto — total shots (home)16.2
Boavista — total shots (away)9.2

Shots on Target

FC Porto — on target (home)6.2
Boavista — on target (away)3.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

FC Porto

Inside the box9.71
Outside the box4.56

Boavista

Inside the box6.09
Outside the box4.32

Player Shots FC Porto

Galeno
Shots on Target/Game2.1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target44%
D. Namaso
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target24%
+1.5 On Target14%
Samu
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target30%
Iván Jaime
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target22%
Pepê Aquino
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Boavista

Manuel Namora
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target13%
R. Boženík
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target24%
Joel da Silva
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target7%
A. Diaby
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target8%
Miguel Reisinho
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target7%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Porto xG (home)1.6
Boavista xG (away)0.96

Average Possession

62.03% Possession 39.79%

Team Comparison FC Porto vs Boavista

85.85% Pass accuracy 73.29%
514.44 Passes per match 315.88
-0.06 Goals prevented 0.24
14.24 Fouls committed 12.74
1.91 Goalkeeper saves 3.5
1.45 Offsides 2.53
13.82 Tackles per match 16.82

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

FC Porto vs Boavista prediction analysis

Review FC Porto vs Boavista with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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