Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: FC Porto vs FK Crvena Zvezda

FC Porto vs FK Crvena Zvezda prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Europa League 2025-10-02 19:00
FC Porto
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
38%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
FK Crvena Zvezda
Away

Prediction Summary

1
55%
X
26%
2
18%
Under 2.5
62%
BTTS No
60%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

FC Porto (Home)

Goals scored / match2.17
Goals conceded / match0.67
Over 2.5 rate33%
BTTS rate67%

FK Crvena Zvezda (Away)

Goals scored / match0.8
Goals conceded / match0.8
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate20%

Team Form last 5 matches

FC Porto
LDWWW
FK Crvena Zvezda
LWDWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 80%
83% +1.5 0%
33% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
67% BTTS 20%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 38%. Model confidence is Medium.

FC Porto averages 2.17 goals scored at home, while FK Crvena Zvezda averages 0.8 goals scored away.

Model Strength
62%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
55%
Draw
26%
Away Win
18%
Over 2.5
38%
BTTS Yes
40%

Head-to-Head last 1

Oct 2025 FC Porto 2 - 1 FK Crvena Zvezda Home

In the last 1 meetings, FC Porto won 1, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

FC Porto — unbeaten run (home)6
FC Porto — scoring streak (home)6
FK Crvena Zvezda — winless run (away)0
FK Crvena Zvezda — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5

1X2 Probability model

FC Porto Win (1)55%
Draw (X)26%
FK Crvena Zvezda Win (2)18%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 80%
83% +1.5 0%
33% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 20%
17% -1.5 100%
67% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

FC Porto vs FK Crvena Zvezda — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

FC Porto — scored (home)2.17
FC Porto — conceded (home)0.67
FK Crvena Zvezda — scored (away)0.8
FK Crvena Zvezda — conceded (away)0.8
Model expected combined goals2.22

Both Teams To Score

Yes40%
No60%

Rate per Team

FC Porto — BTTS matches (home)67%
FK Crvena Zvezda — BTTS matches (away)20%
Combined (simple average)43.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.590%
Under 4.510%
Over 5.582%
Under 5.518%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.557%
Under 7.543%
Over 8.539%
Under 8.561%
Over 9.539%
Under 9.561%
Over 10.529%
Under 10.571%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

FC Porto (home)

Corners for4.5
Corners against3.7

FK Crvena Zvezda (away)

Corners for4.8
Corners against4.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

FC Porto
7 4 15 7 9
FK Crvena Zvezda
12 10 5 13 16

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9

Yellow Cards per Team

FC Porto (home)

For1.5

FK Crvena Zvezda (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

FC Porto — total shots (home)14.0
FK Crvena Zvezda — total shots (away)10.4

Shots on Target

FC Porto — on target (home)5.5
FK Crvena Zvezda — on target (away)2.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

FC Porto

Inside the box9.08
Outside the box5.17

FK Crvena Zvezda

Inside the box8
Outside the box4

Player Shots FC Porto

T. Moffi
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target50%
Samu
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target29%
William
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target18%
Gabri Veiga
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
D. Gül
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%

Player Shots FK Crvena Zvezda

M. Ivanić
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target14%
M. Arnautović
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target20%
Bruno Duarte
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target0%
V. Kostov
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target0%
F. Tebo Uchenna
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target14%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Porto xG (home)1.62
FK Crvena Zvezda xG (away)1.31

Average Possession

51.75% Possession 48.6%

Team Comparison FC Porto vs FK Crvena Zvezda

83.17% Pass accuracy 80%
438.25 Passes per match 450.4
-0.1 Goals prevented 0.36
11.17 Fouls committed 12.8
2.55 Goalkeeper saves 2.4
1.27 Offsides 2.4
15.25 Tackles per match 16.3

League average xG this season is 1.39 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

FC Porto vs FK Crvena Zvezda prediction analysis

Review FC Porto vs FK Crvena Zvezda with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Europa League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Europa League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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