What markets are included in the FC Porto vs Nacional prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the FC Porto vs Nacional prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: FC Porto vs Nacional

FC Porto vs Nacional prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-05-17 17:00

FC Porto

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

42%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Nacional

Away

Prediction Summary

65%

23%

13%

Under 2.5

58%

BTTS No

62%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

FC Porto (Home)

Goals scored / match2.29

Goals conceded / match0.65

Over 2.5 rate35%

BTTS rate47%

Nacional (Away)

Goals scored / match0.53

Goals conceded / match1.35

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate29%

Team Form last 5 matches

FC Porto

WWWLW

Nacional

LDLDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 41%

76% +1.5 12%

35% +2.5 0%

18% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 29%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 42%. Model confidence is Medium.

FC Porto averages 2.29 goals scored at home, while Nacional averages 0.53 goals scored away.

Model Strength

65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

65%

Draw

23%

Away Win

13%

Over 2.5

42%

BTTS Yes

38%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 FC Porto(A) 1 - 0 Nacional Home

Sep 2025 FC Porto 1 - 0 Nacional Home

May 2025 FC Porto 3 - 0 Nacional Home

Jan 2025 FC Porto(A) 0 - 2 Nacional Away

Apr 2021 FC Porto(A) 1 - 0 Nacional Home

In the last 5 meetings, FC Porto won 4, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

FC Porto — unbeaten run (home)3

FC Porto — scoring streak (home)17

Nacional — winless run (away)2

Nacional — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

FC Porto Win (1)65%

Draw (X)23%

Nacional Win (2)13%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 41%

76% +1.5 12%

35% +2.5 0%

18% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 59%

24% -1.5 88%

65% -2.5 100%

82% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

FC Porto vs Nacional — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

FC Porto — scored (home)2.29

FC Porto — conceded (home)0.65

Nacional — scored (away)0.53

Nacional — conceded (away)1.35

Model expected combined goals2.38

Both Teams To Score

Yes38%

No62%

Rate per Team

FC Porto — BTTS matches (home)47%

Nacional — BTTS matches (away)29%

Combined (simple average)38%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.597%

Under 5.53%

Over 6.591%

Under 6.59%

Over 7.579%

Under 7.521%

Over 8.568%

Under 8.532%

Over 9.556%

Under 9.544%

Over 10.547%

Under 10.553%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

FC Porto (home)

Corners for6.4

Corners against3.8

Nacional (away)

Corners for4.5

Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

FC Porto

9 16 11 4 10

Nacional

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.594%

Under 1.56%

Over 2.577%

Under 2.523%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6

Yellow Cards per Team

FC Porto (home)

For2.0

Nacional (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

FC Porto — total shots (home)16.2

Nacional — total shots (away)12.3

Shots on Target

FC Porto — on target (home)6.2

Nacional — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

FC Porto

Inside the box9.71

Outside the box4.56

Nacional

Inside the box7.21

Outside the box6.15

Player Shots FC Porto

Galeno

Shots on Target/Game2.1

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target44%

D. Namaso

Shots on Target/Game1.9

+0.5 On Target24%

+1.5 On Target14%

Samu

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target30%

Iván Jaime

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target22%

Pepê Aquino

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target32%

+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Nacional

Dudu

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target14%

Paulinho Bóia

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target13%

N. Thomas

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target11%

Daniel Penha

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Rúben Macedo

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target4%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Porto xG (home)1.6

Nacional xG (away)1.03

Average Possession

62.03% Possession 47.29%

Team Comparison FC Porto vs Nacional

85.85% Pass accuracy 76.94%

514.44 Passes per match 339.32

-0.06 Goals prevented 0

14.24 Fouls committed 13.5

1.91 Goalkeeper saves 3.15

1.45 Offsides 1.65

13.82 Tackles per match 15.94

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

FC Porto vs Nacional prediction analysis

Review FC Porto vs Nacional with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights