Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Super League 2025-09-13 18:30
FC ST. Gallen
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
FC Lugano
Away

Prediction Summary

1
56%
X
24%
2
20%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

FC ST. Gallen (Home)

Goals scored / match1.74
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate58%

FC Lugano (Away)

Goals scored / match1.21
Goals conceded / match1.16
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

FC ST. Gallen
DWWLW
FC Lugano
WDLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

84% +0.5 79%
47% +1.5 16%
21% +2.5 11%
11% +3.5 11%
11% +4.5 5%
58% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Medium.

FC ST. Gallen averages 1.74 goals scored at home, while FC Lugano averages 1.21 goals scored away.

Model Strength
56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
56%
Draw
24%
Away Win
20%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
50%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 FC ST. Gallen(A) 2 - 1 FC Lugano Home
Mar 2026 FC ST. Gallen 1 - 1 FC Lugano Draw
Nov 2025 FC ST. Gallen(A) 3 - 1 FC Lugano Home
Sep 2025 FC ST. Gallen 1 - 0 FC Lugano Home
Apr 2025 FC ST. Gallen(A) 1 - 1 FC Lugano Draw

In the last 5 meetings, FC ST. Gallen won 3, drew 2 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

FC ST. Gallen — unbeaten run (home)1
FC ST. Gallen — scoring streak (home)1
FC Lugano — winless run (away)1
FC Lugano — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

FC ST. Gallen Win (1)56%
Draw (X)24%
FC Lugano Win (2)20%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

84% +0.5 79%
47% +1.5 16%
21% +2.5 11%
11% +3.5 11%
11% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

16% -0.5 21%
53% -1.5 84%
79% -2.5 89%
89% -3.5 89%
89% -4.5 95%

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

FC ST. Gallen — scored (home)1.74
FC ST. Gallen — conceded (home)1.21
FC Lugano — scored (away)1.21
FC Lugano — conceded (away)1.16
Model expected combined goals2.68

Both Teams To Score

Yes50%
No50%

Rate per Team

FC ST. Gallen — BTTS matches (home)58%
FC Lugano — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)55.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.584%
Under 5.516%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.571%
Under 7.529%
Over 8.566%
Under 8.534%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

FC ST. Gallen (home)

Corners for5.6
Corners against4.9

FC Lugano (away)

Corners for4.6
Corners against4.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

FC ST. Gallen
12 12 8 18 12
FC Lugano
12 9 8 8 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.1

Yellow Cards per Team

FC ST. Gallen (home)

For2.3

FC Lugano (away)

For2.5

Shots per Game

FC ST. Gallen — total shots (home)16.8
FC Lugano — total shots (away)14.6

Shots on Target

FC ST. Gallen — on target (home)5.9
FC Lugano — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

FC ST. Gallen

Inside the box11.5
Outside the box4.45

FC Lugano

Inside the box8.74
Outside the box4.47

Player Shots FC ST. Gallen

W. Geubbels
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target100%
A. Vogt
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target31%
C. Boukhalfa
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target31%
A. Balde
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target19%
C. Witzig
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots FC Lugano

K. Behrens
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target21%
Y. Cimignani
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%
H. Delcroix
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target7%
R. Steffen
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target7%
Daniel Dos Santos
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

FC ST. Gallen xG (home)1.98
FC Lugano xG (away)1.53

Average Possession

44.76% Possession 56.39%

Team Comparison FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano

68.97% Pass accuracy 84.71%
308.05 Passes per match 476.45
0.31 Goals prevented 0.14
15.92 Fouls committed 12.13
3.39 Goalkeeper saves 3.61
1.95 Offsides 2.17
16.5 Tackles per match 14.39

League average xG this season is 1.65 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano prediction analysis

Review FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Super League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Super League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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