Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Super League 2025-10-04 16:00
FC ST. Gallen
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
63%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
FC Thun
Away

Prediction Summary

1
44%
X
23%
2
33%
Over 2.5
63%
BTTS Yes
64%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

FC ST. Gallen (Home)

Goals scored / match1.74
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate58%

FC Thun (Away)

Goals scored / match1.84
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate68%

Team Form last 5 matches

FC ST. Gallen
DWWLW
FC Thun
DLLLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

84% +0.5 89%
47% +1.5 58%
21% +2.5 26%
11% +3.5 11%
11% +4.5 0%
58% BTTS 68%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 63%. Model confidence is Medium.

FC ST. Gallen averages 1.74 goals scored at home, while FC Thun averages 1.84 goals scored away.

Model Strength
64%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
44%
Draw
23%
Away Win
33%
Over 2.5
63%
BTTS Yes
64%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 FC ST. Gallen 1 - 1 FC Thun Draw
Mar 2026 FC ST. Gallen(A) 2 - 2 FC Thun Draw
Dec 2025 FC ST. Gallen(A) 2 - 0 FC Thun Home
Oct 2025 FC ST. Gallen 1 - 2 FC Thun Away
Jul 2020 FC ST. Gallen(A) 1 - 2 FC Thun Away

In the last 5 meetings, FC ST. Gallen won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

FC ST. Gallen — unbeaten run (home)1
FC ST. Gallen — scoring streak (home)1
FC Thun — winless run (away)5
FC Thun — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

FC ST. Gallen Win (1)44%
Draw (X)23%
FC Thun Win (2)33%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

84% +0.5 89%
47% +1.5 58%
21% +2.5 26%
11% +3.5 11%
11% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

16% -0.5 11%
53% -1.5 42%
79% -2.5 74%
89% -3.5 89%
89% -4.5 100%

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

FC ST. Gallen — scored (home)1.74
FC ST. Gallen — conceded (home)1.21
FC Thun — scored (away)1.84
FC Thun — conceded (away)1.21
Model expected combined goals3.25

Both Teams To Score

Yes64%
No36%

Rate per Team

FC ST. Gallen — BTTS matches (home)58%
FC Thun — BTTS matches (away)68%
Combined (simple average)63%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.592%
Under 6.58%
Over 7.582%
Under 7.518%
Over 8.569%
Under 8.531%
Over 9.558%
Under 9.542%
Over 10.548%
Under 10.552%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

FC ST. Gallen (home)

Corners for5.6
Corners against4.9

FC Thun (away)

Corners for5.2
Corners against4.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

FC ST. Gallen
12 12 8 18 12
FC Thun
12 7 12 5 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.3

Yellow Cards per Team

FC ST. Gallen (home)

For2.3

FC Thun (away)

For2.5

Shots per Game

FC ST. Gallen — total shots (home)16.8
FC Thun — total shots (away)16.9

Shots on Target

FC ST. Gallen — on target (home)5.9
FC Thun — on target (away)5.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

FC ST. Gallen

Inside the box11.5
Outside the box4.45

FC Thun

Inside the box10.82
Outside the box6.21

Player Shots FC ST. Gallen

W. Geubbels
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target100%
A. Vogt
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target31%
C. Boukhalfa
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target31%
A. Balde
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target19%
C. Witzig
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots FC Thun

E. Rastoder
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target22%
L. Bertone
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target18%
C. Ibayi
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target7%
K. Imeri
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target17%
E. Meichtry
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target23%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

FC ST. Gallen xG (home)1.98
FC Thun xG (away)1.83

Average Possession

44.76% Possession 46.13%

Team Comparison FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun

68.97% Pass accuracy 70.97%
308.05 Passes per match 318.97
0.31 Goals prevented -0.05
15.92 Fouls committed 15.66
3.39 Goalkeeper saves 3.21
1.95 Offsides 2.34
16.5 Tackles per match 17.08

League average xG this season is 1.65 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun prediction analysis

Review FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Super League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Super League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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