Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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2. Bundesliga 2026-08-09 11:30
FC St. Pauli
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
59%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Away

Prediction Summary

1
56%
X
22%
2
22%
Over 2.5
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

FC St. Pauli (Home)

Goals scored / match0
Goals conceded / match0
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate0%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Away)

Goals scored / match1.28
Goals conceded / match2.11
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate67%

Team Form last 5 matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
WLWLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

0% +0.5 67%
0% +1.5 39%
0% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 6%
0% BTTS 67%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 59%. Model confidence is Medium.

FC St. Pauli averages 0 goals scored at home, while SpVgg Greuther Fürth averages 1.28 goals scored away.

Model Strength
59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
56%
Draw
22%
Away Win
22%
Over 2.5
59%
BTTS Yes
58%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2024 FC St. Pauli 3 - 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth Home
Aug 2023 FC St. Pauli(A) 0 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth Draw
Mar 2023 FC St. Pauli 2 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth Home
Sep 2022 FC St. Pauli(A) 2 - 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth Draw
Apr 2021 FC St. Pauli 2 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth Home

In the last 5 meetings, FC St. Pauli won 3, drew 2 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

SpVgg Greuther Fürth — winless run (away)5
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

FC St. Pauli Win (1)56%
Draw (X)22%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win (2)22%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

0% +0.5 67%
0% +1.5 39%
0% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 6%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

100% -0.5 33%
100% -1.5 61%
100% -2.5 89%
100% -3.5 94%
100% -4.5 94%

FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

FC St. Pauli — scored (home)0
FC St. Pauli — conceded (home)0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — scored (away)1.28
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — conceded (away)2.11
Model expected combined goals3.05

Both Teams To Score

Yes58%
No42%

Rate per Team

FC St. Pauli — BTTS matches (home)0%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — BTTS matches (away)67%
Combined (simple average)33.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.564%
Under 8.536%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

FC St. Pauli (home)

Corners for—
Corners against—

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (away)

Corners for5.2
Corners against5.3

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
9 20 5 9 14

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.545%
Under 0.555%
Over 1.545%
Under 1.555%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

FC St. Pauli (home)

For—

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (away)

For2.3

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.581%
Under 19.519%
Over 22.567%
Under 22.533%
Over 25.552%
Under 25.548%
Expected total shots26.45

FC St. Pauli

Shots Over 9.586%
Shots Over 11.573%
Shots Over 13.557%
Expected shots14.83
On Target Over 3.573%
On Target Over 4.558%
On Target Over 5.542%
Expected on target5.22

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Shots Over 9.567%
Shots Over 11.548%
Shots Over 13.531%
Expected shots11.62
On Target Over 3.550%
On Target Over 4.533%
On Target Over 5.519%
Expected on target3.76

Shots per Game

FC St. Pauli — total shots (home)—
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — total shots (away)12.4

Shots on Target

FC St. Pauli — on target (home)—
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — on target (away)4.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

FC St. Pauli

Inside the box-
Outside the box-

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Inside the box7.14
Outside the box4.83

Player Shots FC St. Pauli

Not enough dataNot enough player match statistics for this squad.

Player Shots SpVgg Greuther Fürth

F. Higl
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target5%
+1.5 On Target5%
N. Futkeu
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target28%
F. Klaus
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target66%
+1.5 On Target31%
S. Ltaief
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
J. Green
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target4%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

FC St. Pauli xG (home)-
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG (away)1.29

Average Possession

-% Possession 48.22%

Team Comparison FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

0% Pass accuracy 78.69%
- Passes per match 397.89
- Goals prevented 0.08
- Fouls committed 11.33
- Goalkeeper saves 2.89
- Offsides 1.74
- Tackles per match 15.75

League average xG this season is 1.49 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth prediction analysis

Review FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from 2. Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance 2. Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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