Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart

FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Bundesliga 2025-05-03 13:30
FC St. Pauli
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
VfB Stuttgart
Away

Prediction Summary

1
31%
X
27%
2
42%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

FC St. Pauli (Home)

Goals scored / match0.59
Goals conceded / match1.12
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate24%

VfB Stuttgart (Away)

Goals scored / match1.71
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate59%

Team Form last 5 matches

FC St. Pauli
LDLDD
VfB Stuttgart
WWWLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

35% +0.5 76%
12% +1.5 53%
12% +2.5 29%
0% +3.5 12%
0% +4.5 0%
24% BTTS 59%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.

FC St. Pauli averages 0.59 goals scored at home, while VfB Stuttgart averages 1.71 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
31%
Draw
27%
Away Win
42%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
51%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 FC St. Pauli 2 - 1 VfB Stuttgart Home
Sep 2025 FC St. Pauli(A) 0 - 2 VfB Stuttgart Away
May 2025 FC St. Pauli 0 - 1 VfB Stuttgart Away
Dec 2024 FC St. Pauli(A) 1 - 0 VfB Stuttgart Home
Feb 2020 FC St. Pauli 1 - 1 VfB Stuttgart Draw

In the last 5 meetings, FC St. Pauli won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

FC St. Pauli — unbeaten run (home)0
FC St. Pauli — scoring streak (home)0
VfB Stuttgart — winless run (away)0
VfB Stuttgart — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

FC St. Pauli Win (1)31%
Draw (X)27%
VfB Stuttgart Win (2)42%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

35% +0.5 76%
12% +1.5 53%
12% +2.5 29%
0% +3.5 12%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

65% -0.5 24%
88% -1.5 47%
88% -2.5 71%
100% -3.5 88%
100% -4.5 100%

FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

FC St. Pauli — scored (home)0.59
FC St. Pauli — conceded (home)1.12
VfB Stuttgart — scored (away)1.71
VfB Stuttgart — conceded (away)1.53
Model expected combined goals2.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%
No49%

Rate per Team

FC St. Pauli — BTTS matches (home)24%
VfB Stuttgart — BTTS matches (away)59%
Combined (simple average)41.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.585%
Under 4.515%
Over 5.585%
Under 5.515%
Over 6.577%
Under 6.523%
Over 7.577%
Under 7.523%
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

FC St. Pauli (home)

Corners for5.1
Corners against3.8

VfB Stuttgart (away)

Corners for4.5
Corners against5.8

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

FC St. Pauli
8 4 8 4 11
VfB Stuttgart
8 11 8 13 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.594%
Under 0.56%
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

FC St. Pauli (home)

For1.3

VfB Stuttgart (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

FC St. Pauli — total shots (home)12.0
VfB Stuttgart — total shots (away)11.2

Shots on Target

FC St. Pauli — on target (home)3.4
VfB Stuttgart — on target (away)4.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

FC St. Pauli

Inside the box7.06
Outside the box4.09

VfB Stuttgart

Inside the box10.12
Outside the box3.71

Player Shots FC St. Pauli

J. Eggestein
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target19%
C. Metcalfe
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target10%
E. Saad
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
C. Boukhalfa
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target12%
+1.5 On Target4%
J. Irvine
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots VfB Stuttgart

N. Woltemade
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target25%
E. Millot
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target21%
D. Undav
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target26%
E. Demirović
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target24%
C. Führich
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target24%
+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

FC St. Pauli xG (home)1.03
VfB Stuttgart xG (away)1.88

Average Possession

43.97% Possession 57.5%

Team Comparison FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart

78.09% Pass accuracy 84.82%
406.94 Passes per match 538.38
0.21 Goals prevented 0.04
10.38 Fouls committed 10.53
2.97 Goalkeeper saves 2.5
1.97 Offsides 1.88
15.91 Tackles per match 13.97

League average xG this season is 1.46 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart prediction analysis

Review FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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