Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: FC St. Pauli vs VfL Bochum

FC St. Pauli vs VfL Bochum prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
Bundesliga 2025-05-17 13:30
FC St. Pauli
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
42%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
VfL Bochum
Away

Prediction Summary

1
47%
X
27%
2
26%
Under 2.5
58%
BTTS No
53%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

FC St. Pauli (Home)

Goals scored / match0.59
Goals conceded / match1.12
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate24%

VfL Bochum (Away)

Goals scored / match0.94
Goals conceded / match2.06
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

FC St. Pauli
LDLDD
VfL Bochum
WLDDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

35% +0.5 59%
12% +1.5 29%
12% +2.5 6%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
24% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 42%. Model confidence is Medium.

FC St. Pauli averages 0.59 goals scored at home, while VfL Bochum averages 0.94 goals scored away.

Model Strength
58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
47%
Draw
27%
Away Win
26%
Over 2.5
42%
BTTS Yes
47%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2025 FC St. Pauli 0 - 2 VfL Bochum Away
Jan 2025 FC St. Pauli(A) 0 - 1 VfL Bochum Away
Jan 2021 FC St. Pauli 2 - 3 VfL Bochum Away
Sep 2020 FC St. Pauli(A) 2 - 2 VfL Bochum Draw
Jun 2020 FC St. Pauli(A) 0 - 2 VfL Bochum Away

In the last 5 meetings, FC St. Pauli won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

FC St. Pauli — unbeaten run (home)0
FC St. Pauli — scoring streak (home)0
VfL Bochum — winless run (away)0
VfL Bochum — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

FC St. Pauli Win (1)47%
Draw (X)27%
VfL Bochum Win (2)26%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

35% +0.5 59%
12% +1.5 29%
12% +2.5 6%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

65% -0.5 41%
88% -1.5 71%
88% -2.5 94%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

FC St. Pauli vs VfL Bochum — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

FC St. Pauli — scored (home)0.59
FC St. Pauli — conceded (home)1.12
VfL Bochum — scored (away)0.94
VfL Bochum — conceded (away)2.06
Model expected combined goals2.38

Both Teams To Score

Yes47%
No53%

Rate per Team

FC St. Pauli — BTTS matches (home)24%
VfL Bochum — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)38.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.588%
Under 5.512%
Over 6.580%
Under 6.520%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

FC St. Pauli (home)

Corners for5.1
Corners against3.8

VfL Bochum (away)

Corners for3.9
Corners against5.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

FC St. Pauli
8 4 8 4 11
VfL Bochum
9 14 10 12 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.594%
Under 0.56%
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.6

Yellow Cards per Team

FC St. Pauli (home)

For1.3

VfL Bochum (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

FC St. Pauli — total shots (home)12.0
VfL Bochum — total shots (away)11.1

Shots on Target

FC St. Pauli — on target (home)3.4
VfL Bochum — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

FC St. Pauli

Inside the box7.06
Outside the box4.09

VfL Bochum

Inside the box8.03
Outside the box4.79

Player Shots FC St. Pauli

J. Eggestein
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target19%
C. Metcalfe
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target10%
E. Saad
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
C. Boukhalfa
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target12%
+1.5 On Target4%
J. Irvine
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots VfL Bochum

G. Masouras
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target21%
M. Boadu
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target21%
M. Pannewig
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target7%
D. de Wit
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target18%
+1.5 On Target7%
P. Hofmann
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

FC St. Pauli xG (home)1.03
VfL Bochum xG (away)1.24

Average Possession

43.97% Possession 44.76%

Team Comparison FC St. Pauli vs VfL Bochum

78.09% Pass accuracy 74.18%
406.94 Passes per match 372.79
0.21 Goals prevented 0.31
10.38 Fouls committed 13.71
2.97 Goalkeeper saves 2.59
1.97 Offsides 1.97
15.91 Tackles per match 17.65

League average xG this season is 1.46 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

FC St. Pauli vs VfL Bochum prediction analysis

Review FC St. Pauli vs VfL Bochum with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top