Prediction Analysis: FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen
FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2024-12-14
17:30
FC St. Pauli
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
52%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Werder Bremen
Away
Prediction Summary
1
28%
X
25%
2
47%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
FC St. Pauli (Home)
Goals scored / match0.59
Goals conceded / match1.12
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate24%
Werder Bremen (Away)
Goals scored / match1.94
Goals conceded / match1.82
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate59%
Team Form last 5 matches
FC St. Pauli
LDLDD
Werder Bremen
WDDDW
Goals Comparison rate per team
35%
+0.5
82%
12%
+1.5
71%
12%
+2.5
24%
0%
+3.5
18%
0%
+4.5
0%
24%
BTTS
59%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 52%. Model confidence is Medium.
FC St. Pauli averages 0.59 goals scored at home, while Werder Bremen averages 1.94 goals scored away.
Model Strength
55%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
28%
Draw
25%
Away Win
47%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
Head-to-Head last 5
Feb 2026
FC St. Pauli
2 - 1
Werder Bremen
Home
Oct 2025
FC St. Pauli(A)
0 - 1
Werder Bremen
Away
Apr 2025
FC St. Pauli(A)
0 - 0
Werder Bremen
Draw
Dec 2024
FC St. Pauli
0 - 2
Werder Bremen
Away
Apr 2022
FC St. Pauli
1 - 1
Werder Bremen
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, FC St. Pauli won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
FC St. Pauli — unbeaten run (home)0
FC St. Pauli — scoring streak (home)0
Werder Bremen — winless run (away)0
Werder Bremen — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
FC St. Pauli Win (1)28%
Draw (X)25%
Werder Bremen Win (2)47%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
35%
+0.5
82%
12%
+1.5
71%
12%
+2.5
24%
0%
+3.5
18%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
65%
-0.5
18%
88%
-1.5
29%
88%
-2.5
76%
100%
-3.5
82%
100%
-4.5
100%
FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
FC St. Pauli — scored (home)0.59
FC St. Pauli — conceded (home)1.12
Werder Bremen — scored (away)1.94
Werder Bremen — conceded (away)1.82
Model expected combined goals2.76
Both Teams To Score
Yes55%
No45%
Rate per Team
FC St. Pauli — BTTS matches (home)24%
Werder Bremen — BTTS matches (away)59%
Combined (simple average)41.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.588%
Under 5.512%
Over 6.580%
Under 6.520%
Over 7.571%
Under 7.529%
Over 8.550%
Under 8.550%
Over 9.544%
Under 9.556%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
FC St. Pauli (home)
Corners for5.1
Corners against3.8
Werder Bremen (away)
Corners for4.4
Corners against5.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
FC St. Pauli
8
4
8
4
11
Werder Bremen
9
4
10
15
10
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4
Yellow Cards per Team
FC St. Pauli (home)
For1.3
Werder Bremen (away)
For2.1
Shots per Game
FC St. Pauli — total shots (home)12.0
Werder Bremen — total shots (away)11.7
Shots on Target
FC St. Pauli — on target (home)3.4
Werder Bremen — on target (away)4.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
FC St. Pauli
Inside the box7.06
Outside the box4.09
Werder Bremen
Inside the box9.47
Outside the box3.15
Player Shots FC St. Pauli
J. Eggestein
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target19%
C. Metcalfe
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target10%
E. Saad
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
C. Boukhalfa
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target12%
+1.5 On Target4%
J. Irvine
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target10%
Player Shots Werder Bremen
K. Topp
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target11%
+1.5 On Target5%
M. Ducksch
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
André Silva
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target43%
O. Burke
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target12%
J. Stage
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target11%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
FC St. Pauli xG (home)1.03
Werder Bremen xG (away)1.51
Average Possession
43.97%
Possession
49.94%
Team Comparison FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen
78.09%
Pass accuracy
80.94%
406.94
Passes per match
469.15
0.21
Goals prevented
-0
10.38
Fouls committed
9.85
2.97
Goalkeeper saves
3.06
1.97
Offsides
2.18
15.91
Tackles per match
16.03
League average xG this season is 1.46 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen prediction analysis
Review FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights